5/27/07 FCST: ND/SD/NE/WY/CO

[Jason Persoff]

Starting off this thread since I imagine there will be people out chasing today in part as a positioning maneuver for Monday. Long drives ahead over the next few days.

Target for me today is going to be the N NE panhandle along the SD border. This is mostly a positioning day for tomorrow, but some chasing could exist. This is unfamiliar terrain for me, so I have no idea how local geography will perform. I like the cap in this area (between 5-10 deg) at 700mb and CAPE should be abundant. The LLJ will be most robust at 00z which should add to good storm inflow. Aside from some decent hodos, the upper levels remain slow, so the best hope is going to be shortly after initiation. My enthusiasm is tempered by the lack of success I've had north of the 40th parallel. Here's to hoping I'll break my streak starting today. For those chasing right now, I apologize for bringing my annual ridge. I'm starting to get a complex .

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Mark Sefried and I are also heading slightly north from our current spot in Burlington, CO. We'll probably be towards far NE Colorado or SW Nebraska where there seems to be a slight dry punch coming into the area in the afternoon.

Low level's are good with decent turning, should be adequate for storm rotation. Upper levels are another story. 20-25 kts might just BARELY be enough for some brief supercellular characteristics, but I fear we may end up with multicell garbage. However, if something manages to go supercellular, with the good low level shear we may be able to spin something up real quick.

 

[Mark Blue]

My wife and I will be setting up shop around North Platte today for our launching point. We are heading back from northeast Iowa after a total bust yesterday. The forecast for today looks pretty bleak, however some high based storms may materialize given the current conditions. Seems like the shear profiles are just not there today. Tomorrow definitely looks better, especially north of today's target area.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Bleak forecast today indeed. We are in Denver, CO heading for Sidney, NE and points north. Winds aloft are pathetic but surface moisture will increase. We don't expect much today in the way of severe storms but this will put us in better position to play north-central SD tomorrow. Looking for an upslope surprise. TM

 

[Tim Jones]

Too bad about the weak 500mb winds, b/c features at the surface really don't look to bad. Nice backed flow with moisture return around the I-76/I-80 junction with some inhibition remaining according to SPC analysis. Perhaps if initiation could hold off another few hours those of you out there might be able to get a brief tube with a bit more explosive development. Good luck.

 

[Mark Blue]

We're going to come in from the east out of Grant NE on highway 23 to see what the storm by Holyoke is doing. The latest mesoscale discussion on SPC makes it sound as though land spouts may be on the menu today!

 

[Robbie Cox]

nice rotation from the cell in Sheridan Co. Neb. 2" hail and a slow mover