Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase Targets for Wednesday, May 26:
South: Las Animas, CO (65 miles east of Pueblo).
North: Lindon, CO (80 miles east of Denver).
Timing and storm mode:
Isolated storms should initiate over the Front Range of southeastern Colorado by late morning, and then develop east into the target areas between 1 and 2 PM MDT. Primary storm mode will be multicell, however a few high-based supercells are possible, especially during the first few hours following initiation. Storms will track towards the east at 20 mph.
Discussion:
At the SFC, an OFB extended along an arc extending from Springfield to Rocky Ford to Limon in SERN CO at 05Z. Convection is ongoing along the NRN extent of this boundary. The SRN end of the boundary should stall out, and will be a focus for renewed convection on Wednesday. Modest shear parameters will exist over much of ERN CO; however, orographic features and the OFB may locally enhance hodograph curvatures. Additionally, MDLs indicate a compact H5 shortwave well E of the primary WRN CONUS long wave trough. SFC-6km shear locally in excess of 40 kts by 21Z will be juxtaposed with a helicity bulls-eye and moderate MLCAPEs. Regarding the north target, winds should back in response to a Denver cyclone.
AMS recovery is a concern with SFC dewpoints currently AOB 50 F in much of ERN CO except the far SE where the 04Z Springfield observation was 62/60. 00Z soundings and UA analysis indicates a developing LLJ with a region of 16C H85 dewpoints surging N towards the area from the SRN TX Panhandle. Dewpoints should slowly increase with time. Additionally, the elevation of the target area is 4000ft, and lower dewpoints are necessary for sufficient instability then at sea level. Capping will be weak, with convective temperatures generally between 70-75F in SERN CO. Convection should initiate along the ERN Front Range by late morning with the approach of the aforementioned shortwave. By early afternoon, storms will develop east into the Foothills.
- Bill
11:59 PM CDT, 05/25/10
South: Las Animas, CO (65 miles east of Pueblo).
North: Lindon, CO (80 miles east of Denver).
Timing and storm mode:
Isolated storms should initiate over the Front Range of southeastern Colorado by late morning, and then develop east into the target areas between 1 and 2 PM MDT. Primary storm mode will be multicell, however a few high-based supercells are possible, especially during the first few hours following initiation. Storms will track towards the east at 20 mph.
Discussion:
At the SFC, an OFB extended along an arc extending from Springfield to Rocky Ford to Limon in SERN CO at 05Z. Convection is ongoing along the NRN extent of this boundary. The SRN end of the boundary should stall out, and will be a focus for renewed convection on Wednesday. Modest shear parameters will exist over much of ERN CO; however, orographic features and the OFB may locally enhance hodograph curvatures. Additionally, MDLs indicate a compact H5 shortwave well E of the primary WRN CONUS long wave trough. SFC-6km shear locally in excess of 40 kts by 21Z will be juxtaposed with a helicity bulls-eye and moderate MLCAPEs. Regarding the north target, winds should back in response to a Denver cyclone.
AMS recovery is a concern with SFC dewpoints currently AOB 50 F in much of ERN CO except the far SE where the 04Z Springfield observation was 62/60. 00Z soundings and UA analysis indicates a developing LLJ with a region of 16C H85 dewpoints surging N towards the area from the SRN TX Panhandle. Dewpoints should slowly increase with time. Additionally, the elevation of the target area is 4000ft, and lower dewpoints are necessary for sufficient instability then at sea level. Capping will be weak, with convective temperatures generally between 70-75F in SERN CO. Convection should initiate along the ERN Front Range by late morning with the approach of the aforementioned shortwave. By early afternoon, storms will develop east into the Foothills.
- Bill
11:59 PM CDT, 05/25/10
