5/16/07 FCST: VA/MD/DE/PA/NY

[David Dildine]

Usually Bill Hark starts this region's forecast thread off but I think he's elsewhere.

Forecast profiles on the eastern shore and lower southern Maryland (La Plata) look pretty good but am worried about lapse rates and instability in general. Climatologically, this area sees severe wx when the surface low is a little further south than it will be by showtime. Since this is a cold front chase, I think I can count on a line by 6 PM. But before that, hopefully something can isolate itself, preferably over the slightly backed winds that develop from the influence of the bay/tidal Potamac. Suggestions appreciated...

 

[Bill Hark]

Usually Bill Hark starts this region's forecast thread off but I think he's elsewhere.

Forecast profiles on the eastern shore and lower southern Maryland.... (La ...

Interesting day but the best show will be to the northeast. I think the SPC is a bit generous with their 5% tornado risk. Impressive SW 500mb winds 50 to 60 from eastern Virginia northward but surface winds will also be from the southwest. Instability will be low but sufficient especially with approaching front. Anywhere from northeastern Virginia northward will have a nice line of storms. As for tornadic risk, the best chances would be in the vicinity of the surface low maybe Boston or Providence (using 00Z NAM) As usual, the better instability is to to the south. That area should have at least 60 degree dewpoints. I agree with David that the bay can sometimes influence things. All along that area, there can be sea breeze (or from the Bay ) boundaries that can locally cause backed winds and interactions triggering brief tornadoes. Cetainly anywhere along the eastern shore of Maryland/Virginia would bea nice place to start from someone based in Maryland. I'd like to see today's models output and soundings.

I will probably sit this out as I am preparing for a possible chase trip out west. If I lived in Conn, I'd be out chasing.

Bill Hark

 

[B Ozanne]

I will probably sit this out as I am preparing for a possible chase trip out west. If I lived in Conn, I'd be out chasing.

I'm not holding my breath on this one. Anything close to the coast is going to get crushed by the cold ocean waters that like to intrude inland as storms approach. We're still dealing with 55F water in Long Island Sound.

I may do some chasing if things get really interesting, but this is some of the worst chase country. Extreme traffic, lots of forests, low visibility, and not a single road that goes straight for more than 100 yards.