Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase Target for Wednesday, May 14:
Tuxedo, TX (28 miles north of Abilene).
Timing and storm mode:
Storms will fire between 3 and 4 PM CDT, with a few supercell storms and a tornado or two early in storm evolution. By early evening, storms will evolve into one or more multicell complexes.
Synopsis:
UA analysis indicated a 110kt H3 streak ejecting from base of positively/tilted trough in the SRN stream over the TX panhandle, and numerious areas of convection over TX appear to be associated with large scale assent with this feature along with 16C dewpoints advected NWRD courtesy of a 30kt LLJ. H5 closed circulation now in AZ will slowly migrate EWD through 00Z 05/15/08, at which time it will begin to open up over NRN TX. WRLY H7 flow will increase to 35kts S of I-20 through the same time period. FWD sounding indicates steep mid-level lapse rates on top of a 150mb-deep well mixed moist layer.
Discussion:
The FCST is difficult due to extensive precipitation ongoing N of I-20 before 14Z and the effects of boundaries and convective feedback. Elevated morning storms will push to the E by noon and SFC-based convection should fire west of the morning storms along an inverted trough and associated DL near Seymour, TX; where MLCAPEs may locally reach 4000 J/kg beneath steep lapse rates associated with the upper low. As was the case today in TX, flow from the SFC through 10kft will be weak; however deep layer shear will increase to nearly 70 kts within the left-exit region of a cyclonic H5 streak. Coupled with ample instability, this may be sufficient to promote storm organization, especially early in storm evolution at which time rotating storms with a tornado or two will be likely.
- bill
11:30 PM CDT, 05/13/08
Tuxedo, TX (28 miles north of Abilene).
Timing and storm mode:
Storms will fire between 3 and 4 PM CDT, with a few supercell storms and a tornado or two early in storm evolution. By early evening, storms will evolve into one or more multicell complexes.
Synopsis:
UA analysis indicated a 110kt H3 streak ejecting from base of positively/tilted trough in the SRN stream over the TX panhandle, and numerious areas of convection over TX appear to be associated with large scale assent with this feature along with 16C dewpoints advected NWRD courtesy of a 30kt LLJ. H5 closed circulation now in AZ will slowly migrate EWD through 00Z 05/15/08, at which time it will begin to open up over NRN TX. WRLY H7 flow will increase to 35kts S of I-20 through the same time period. FWD sounding indicates steep mid-level lapse rates on top of a 150mb-deep well mixed moist layer.
Discussion:
The FCST is difficult due to extensive precipitation ongoing N of I-20 before 14Z and the effects of boundaries and convective feedback. Elevated morning storms will push to the E by noon and SFC-based convection should fire west of the morning storms along an inverted trough and associated DL near Seymour, TX; where MLCAPEs may locally reach 4000 J/kg beneath steep lapse rates associated with the upper low. As was the case today in TX, flow from the SFC through 10kft will be weak; however deep layer shear will increase to nearly 70 kts within the left-exit region of a cyclonic H5 streak. Coupled with ample instability, this may be sufficient to promote storm organization, especially early in storm evolution at which time rotating storms with a tornado or two will be likely.
- bill
11:30 PM CDT, 05/13/08
Last edited by a moderator: