5/14/08 FCST: TX/OK

[Bill Schintler]

Chase Target for Wednesday, May 14:
Tuxedo, TX (28 miles north of Abilene).

Timing and storm mode:
Storms will fire between 3 and 4 PM CDT, with a few supercell storms and a tornado or two early in storm evolution. By early evening, storms will evolve into one or more multicell complexes.

Synopsis:
UA analysis indicated a 110kt H3 streak ejecting from base of positively/tilted trough in the SRN stream over the TX panhandle, and numerious areas of convection over TX appear to be associated with large scale assent with this feature along with 16C dewpoints advected NWRD courtesy of a 30kt LLJ. H5 closed circulation now in AZ will slowly migrate EWD through 00Z 05/15/08, at which time it will begin to open up over NRN TX. WRLY H7 flow will increase to 35kts S of I-20 through the same time period. FWD sounding indicates steep mid-level lapse rates on top of a 150mb-deep well mixed moist layer.

Discussion:
The FCST is difficult due to extensive precipitation ongoing N of I-20 before 14Z and the effects of boundaries and convective feedback. Elevated morning storms will push to the E by noon and SFC-based convection should fire west of the morning storms along an inverted trough and associated DL near Seymour, TX; where MLCAPEs may locally reach 4000 J/kg beneath steep lapse rates associated with the upper low. As was the case today in TX, flow from the SFC through 10kft will be weak; however deep layer shear will increase to nearly 70 kts within the left-exit region of a cyclonic H5 streak. Coupled with ample instability, this may be sufficient to promote storm organization, especially early in storm evolution at which time rotating storms with a tornado or two will be likely.

- bill
11:30 PM CDT, 05/13/08

 

[tom hanlon]

Target:
East Texas North of Houston

Forecast:

Real mess today. Overnight precipitation with perhaps an embedded MCV. I will hope for some "second round" storms in the wake of the morning activity.

Boundaries and moisture will be plentiful. The main goal then will be to locate some clearing and some discrete storms.

--
Tom

 

[Tim Marshall]

TARGET: SAN ANGELO, TX TIME OF DEPARTURE: 1 PM Another marginal chase day, but I cannot pass it up. Morning surface analysis of WRF and RUC have pushed my target area farther SW making for a longer haul today. PROS - Progessive closed low will eject out of the Rockies today with strong southwesterly jets aloft. Clearing has occurred in the wake of last nights convection setting the stage for strong surface heating. Surface winds will be switching more easterly this afternoon making for great deep layer shear. A dryline will mix eastward to a Big Spring - San Angelo line tonight. CONS - Overnight convection has depleted the surface moisture and left a stable, cool boundary in its wake. The big question is can additional severe storms fire this afternoon in this worked over air - I say yes. I will likely head to Abilene, then re-evaluate there. TM

 

[Warren Faidley]

Targeting area bounded by Clovis, LBB and Hobbs. Glad 16:30Z SPC moved risk into my initial target. Interesting to see if storms will root at surface. I like right front quad. of L. with decent hycl's. Long shot with rapid overturning likely. Cloud blanket thinning out nicely in area. LBB's HWO just updated with tornado risk noted.

W.