5/13/09 NOW: MO/IA/IL/KS/OK

[John Farley]

As advertised by SPC, the storms around the MCV southwest of St. Louis are starting to expand rather rapidly. So, I think it is time to get a NOW thread started. I am back home after a brief foray out to check out the stuff that fired near the STL area and is now exiting Montgomery County, IL. That looks decent on radar but remains elevated and does not now seem to be backbuilding enough to get on the warm side of the warm front. So I'm back here watching the MCV or to see if anything fires on the warm front.

 

[jshields]

sorry if someone has already posted this, but tornado watch #293 issued for northern missouri, southeast iowa, western illinois. storms should be initiating soon. watch message says along cold front, hopefully something will pop out in front of it or along the warm front. i'm still in macon, mo watching a shower grow sw of me near keytesville, mo. might wait and see what that does or head north a little towards kirksville.

 

[Jeremy Ludin]

Joel Wright and I are following the warm front westward in west-central IL east of Keokuk, about to head into northeast MO. Lots of clouds here but satellite shows some breaks to the southwest. SBCAPE already over 2,000j/kg in northeast Missouri. We're hoping something fires ahead of the cold front along the warm front. If not we'll catch the storms to the west.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Finally getting some echo tops over 30K on those southern two returns. Shouldn't be much longer till game on.

 

[Mike Smith]

MESO disc. issued for southern Kansas and Oklahoma.
www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0814.html



The front extends from just W of TOP to 10 NW of EMP to ICT to 5 E. ANY. Cu field looking good in northeast Wichita. Echoes are just starting to show near Strong City and NW of EMP.

 

[Chris Allington]

We are on the southern storm near Chillicothe... its starting to anvil pretty hard the up draft looks good as well

 

[Jim Zandonai]

2 cells SE of DMX over 40-45kft and ST warning just issued. Would not be surprised to see some hooks develop soon in the cells if they can really get going good. Still think though the MO. is going to light up soon though.

 

[Mike Smith]

Strong storm, 61 dbZ, north side of EMP, appears to be moving slightly to the right of the flow.

Now severe warned, 4:35pm.

Weak rotation, north side of I-35, about 8 mi. ENE of downtown EMP. Storm moving a little more to right. 4:41pm.

Severe thunderstorm watch western Missouri and eastern Kansas.

A few light echoes now lighting up along I-35 from EMP to El Dorado Lake. 4:52pm.

 

[John Farley]

I think IL is shaping up to be a dud, at least as far as daytime convection. I was out for a while on the stuff on the leading edge of the MCV east of St. Louis near Carlyle Lake and Highland, and, though briefly strong in localized spots, it looked even more elevated than the stuff this morning. Too much rain in too many places earlier in the day. If the MCV had come in an hour or two later there might have been more time to destabilize, but as it turns out a lot of dynamics are going to waste.

Looks like the main show will be along the front. Perhaps those of you up in NW MO can catch something before it lines out. There could still be tornadoes in eastern MO and IL, but if so they will be after dark with the squall line, unless the stuff near Qunicy gets its act together in the next hour or so.

EDIT - One other place in IL that could still see something before dark is the far southeast, along the edge of the MCV. But I wouldn't hold my breath there, either.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Wow! That cell near Emporia EXPLODED!!! From quarters to baseballs and rapid rotation in mere minutes.

 

[Jeff Smith]

Where do you see rapid rotation? Were baseballs reported? Doesn't look too impressive to me on GR3...

 

[Mike Smith]

Decent rotation now over Pomona Lake at 5:03pm.


Hook developing near Lebo. 5:13pm. Hook still there at 5:18 with 83 VILs = 4" hail estimated by radar.



Next big cell looks like it will be the cell south of Cassoday.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Where do you see rapid rotation? Were baseballs reported? Doesn't look too impressive to me on GR3...

It showed a decent couplet with 3.25 inch hail about 15 minutes ago - has since weakened.

 

[Jeff Smith]

There's a bit of rotation between Lebo & Neosho springs now.

 

[Bryan Stokes]

I'm sitting on my porch in Derby, KS right now and watching a cell blow up right in front of me. I love watching the birth of a storm! I don't think I'm going to go anywhere. It looks like it will go linear rather quickly. I might as well just sit back and watch the show...

Bryan