5/13/09 DISC: MO/IA/IL/KS/OK

[mikegeukes]

Kirksville Tornado from Media Outlets:

Kirksville Newspaper:
http://www.kirksvilledailyexpress.com/homepage/x529240185

KMIZ: Columbia MO
http://www.kmiz.com/news/story.php?id=14186&author=News%20Staff&category=Tornado&franchise=&county=&city=&partner=

KOMU: Columbia MO
http://www.komu.com/satellite/Satel...4c70b769/3c8924d8-80ce-0971-003d-b0ff016057d1

WGEM: Quicy IL
http://www.wgem.com/global/video/fl...chPageAdTag=News&activePane=info&rnd=53862944

Mike

 

[Brandon Goforth]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5wmIP043Cc

Records his speed, then his face. Oh hai mister sheriff.

The video was removed! Maybe he's rethinking that one...

 

[Andrew Butler]

... ... ... ... ... ... ...

 

[Rick Schmidt]

"I threw a few pictures on my flickr but I am curious whether anyone else was actually in the area for this?"--Jim S.

Jim:

I videotaped a brief tornado 3 miles west of Harris from that storm at 6:00 PM, according to my video timestamp. It showed a classic, but small wall cloud. ---Rick Schmidt

 

[Jim Saueressig]

"I threw a few pictures on my flickr but I am curious whether anyone else was actually in the area for this?"--Jim S.

Jim:

I videotaped a brief tornado 3 miles west of Harris from that storm at 6:00 PM, according to my video timestamp. It showed a classic, but small wall cloud. ---Rick Schmidt

Do you have that posted anywhere? I am trying like hell to figure out where the chopper tornado was but I am not finding anything familiar on google earth. I am going out in a bit to try to find a path.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

I noted a discussion last night regarding the SPC's forecasted outlook for May 13th, 2009. I believe that the discussion was going on in this thread, but I cannot seem to find it anymore, perhaps it was deleted.

Regardless, it seems as if there can be alot of debating whether or not a risk that the SPC puts out "verifies" or not, with many claims like "a moderate risk used to mean ___" made. It seems clear that last night, and many of these instances, people can let their emotions get in the way on either side of that argument. Today, I decided to objectively verify whether or not the moderate risk "verified," for just for the sake of fulfilling everyone's curiosity.

The SPC's definition of the convective outlooks, per their own FAQ page, is based on the individual probabilities of hail/wind/tornado within 25 miles of a point. This diagram comes to mind:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/prob_to_cat_day1_seetext.jpg


Did May 13th, 2009 MOD verify?
Based on this, a moderate risk means that there is a 15% chance of tornadoes, a 60% chance of severe hail, and/or a 45% chance of severe winds, all within 25 miles of a point. Using GIS, the 1630z MOD risk outline was drawn and it's area calculated. The MOD risk was ~156,763 sq miles in area. The area created by a 25 mile buffer around a point is 1,963 sq miles. This would create ~80 "probability circles" within the bounds of yesterday's risk area. Averaged over the risk area, the tornado probability was about 7%, the hail probability was about 45%, the sig. hail pobability was about 9%, and the wind probability was about 35%. Multiplying these percentages by the number of "probability circles" yields the number of evenly spaced reports averaged over the risk area that is required to verify the risk. Based on the SPC's definitions and the risks shown above, yesterday's MOD risk was low-end, and the area southwest of central Missouri only became a moderate risk due to the hatched (sig severe) area for hail. For the moderate risk to "verify" according to the SPC definitions there would have needed to be 5.6 tornadoes, 35.9 severe hail instances, 7.2 significant severe hail instances, and 27.9 severe wind instances.
*The obvious caveat to this is that severe weather does not occur as points, it occurs as lines or polygons.

Based on this, the risk likely verified for tornadoes (23 reports), definitely verified for hail (127 reports), maybe verified for sig. hail (7 reports), definitely verified for wind (144 reports).

 

[Rick Schmidt]

Jim:

I don't have it posted. I believe it skipped a few times. It might not show much of a path. Good luck!---Rick

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

This is from the reports...

Caught 2 tornadoes today, one near Green City, MO; and the other between Green City and Novinger. Tornado 2 grew from a truncated cone into a 1/4 mile wide beast and passed 1/8 mile in front of me. Unfortunately I was blocked by debris and couldn't continue the chase beyond there.

Well, I Im assuming your not heart broken because their was house debris in your way.... from that house pictured... If that was the case did the thought come across your mind to see if there was people that needed help? Not trying to be mean, but I was just wondering if that was the case.

 

[mikegeukes]

[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]NWS Kansas City
.PRELIMINARY TORNADO DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS FROM MAY 13 EVENT [/FONT]
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KEAX/0905141920.nous43.html

Mike


[FONT=lucida sans typewriter, lucida console, courier]
[/FONT]

 

[mikegeukes]

NWS Norman Damage Surveys are in: Kay, Dewey, Noble, Caddo and Cleveland Counties
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KOUN/0905142035.nous44.html

Mike

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Well, I Im assuming your not heart broken because their was house debris in your way.... from that house pictured... If that was the case did the thought come across your mind to see if there was people that needed help? Not trying to be mean, but I was just wondering if that was the case.

The residents were outside the house and stated that everyone was ok. There were powerlines across the driveway and ditch preventing anyone from getting onto the property from the road.

I stopped to help the guy that was blown off the road in his truck and had all his windows broken out, and stopped to offer assistance at 2 other houses which had moderate damage.

But hey, thanks for asking.

 

[Jim Saueressig]

Well, I Im assuming your not heart broken because their was house debris in your way.... from that house pictured... If that was the case did the thought come across your mind to see if there was people that needed help? Not trying to be mean, but I was just wondering if that was the case.

That was a real dickish thing to spout off don't you think Brendon?

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

Hah ok just making sure there was some etiquette. Seeing as I am the chaser police...jk =) Well thanks for doing your part. Great chase!

 

[Steve Miller]

Yeah MikeG - here is the text for the Cleveland County cell:

TORNADO - CLEVELAND COUNTY - WEST SIDE OF LAKE STANLEY DRAPER 1041PM-1047PM THIS BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LAKE AND MOVED SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. A BOAT DOCK WAS DAMAGED AND TREES AND OTHER SMALL STRUCTURES WERE DAMAGED. BASED ON PRELIMINARY INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO IS RATED EF0.

It was a bit hairy here at my place in east Moore, just about 3/4 to 1 mile south of Draper! Check out my blog for account and radar images of the circulation in relation to my home.

 

[Mark M Smith]

Yeah MikeG - here is the text for the Cleveland County cell:


It was a bit hairy here at my place in east Moore, just about 3/4 to 1 mile south of Draper! Check out my blog for account and radar images of the circulation in relation to my home.

I will agree with you Steve. It was a bit hairy. I'm sure gald I put the storm shelter in 2 months ago.

As for my view point which is about a mile north of Steve, the wall cloud stayed north of me but not by far. We saw a well defind funnel about 3/4 the way to the ground and power flashes. I'm kicking myself for not grabbing my video camera. I could have gotten great video of it.