5/13/08 FCST: OK / TX / KS/ AR/ MO

[Tim Marshall]

TARGET: Wichita Falls, TX TIME OF DEPARTURE: 1 PM Another storm chase day is shaping up thanks to the rapid return of surface moisture. This morning, I'm socked in with overcast stract-cu and mist in the Dallas area. Only a short hop NW up the highway to heaven in my beat up pickup truck. PROS - Ample surface moisture has arrived -and just in time. With a front moving through W OK and W TX as we speak, a triple point should form near the Wichita Falls area later today. An upper low in the intermountain west will bring 40-50 kt southwesterly winds at 500 mb across the target area. I'm looking to play a small region of backed winds along and north of the Red River -if a surface low develops there. Storms should fire near SPS then move northeastward toward Duncan and Pauls Valley. CONS - I fear the dryline will not be moving east, but west, as the upper low digs. This will kill convergence along the dryline and prevent the surface low from forming. Although the cap remains formidable, convection is already occurring in the warm sector south and west of Dallas. What's up with that? TM

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

1. Hailers in Illinois now might leave enough droppings INVOF the middle-of-nowhere area up I-35 north of KC on over through central missouri for some storms to work with, but I'm not sure of the surface data right now to make an educated guess on whether something will be able to organize before the front pushes through there.

2. Looked at soundings for Coffeesville (sp?) in SE KS and didn't like what I saw there - even though the shear is okay the winds are all over the place, and the hodos around 00z look messy. Expecting storms to line up quickly as the cold front swiftly removes the cap.

3. Austin, Texas has a neat GFS hodograph around 00z. If the 700mb winds can get their act together down there, I-35 from Austin to Waco might be my greatest area of interest for supercellular development. Very close secondary target of interest for me is McAllister OK, but that has already been talked through and through here.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Based on SPC's mesoanalysis w/ CIN eroding and some convergence at the surface, it looks like initiation may be in the vicinity of a Pauls Valley to Waurika line this afternoon. Better low level helicity is just to the east. With storm motions looking to be ENE, if any supercells can sustain a decent lifespan, perhaps the peak threat will be realized in the vicinity of a line from McAlester to Durant.

 

[Paul Redmond]

Starting to look promising in central texas. Transverse rolls are visable in both radar and satelite imagery in the vicinity of Runnels and Coleman counties ahead of prior outflow boundaries. If those rolls are intersecting the dry line, things could be very interesting soon north east of Abeline and north of the I-20 corridor. Good luck to people in that area.

Since logistics prevented me from racing northward today, I am hoping for things further south later in the day as the dry line moves eastward. Ruc and NGM models are still suggesting action further south around and after 0Z, possibly starting out as isolated convection turning into an overnight MCS.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Boundary line becoming visible on Oklahoma City radar, from just east of Stillwater, through Oklahoma City and sw'wd to Duncan. Looks to be coincident or just ahead of the wind shift line, w/ cu developing on visable sat now. I still think around Pauls Valley would be the place to set up now.

 

[Evan Stubbart]

Work has me in College Station, TX so I'm sitting tight to see how things develope for the next hour. I feel I'm way to south though and east of where the action is going to be. I'd like to be sitting in Graham, TX right now... I am worried about surface winds. I just don't see strong surface winds.