4/25/09 FCST: NE/KS/OK/TX

[Jason Haller]

This is my first time doing this so I hope I do it correctly. Looking and the NAM and GFS are showing a good setup for Saturday across Southern Nebraska, Eastern Kansas and Northern Oklahoma. Surface Temps will be in the Mid 80's to low 90's for much of the the forecast region. Dewpoints are forecasting well into the 60's to mid 60's all they way up into the 850mb layer so moisture depth should not be a problem. Cape forecasting with the NAM is showing an area of 2000+ over Northeastern Kansas GFS is showing near the same as well. Lifting index of -5 are also common over the same area. Storm Motion look good as well (still learning to read that correctly). Thanks to Twisterdata.com for the model data. Please correct me as I am still learning on this forecast stuff but from was I can see it looks good for my area and may be able to chase this some if it keeps in my area.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I am keeping a close eye on Saturday as well. The finer details will slowly become clearer as we head into the weekend. Right now my focus in on the recovery of the GOM. The models have been bullish in there moisture return by the weekend. we are almost into May, so typically the GOM recovers quicker than it did a month ago.

The current GooFuS solution has me interested in northwest OK and southcentral KS. Of course last night's solution had everything down near the Red River, so there has been quite a bit of disparity in each successive run of the models. With all of that said, it bears watching.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Jason, I think you are looking at Friday's setup as the 12z WRF is only up to Friday at 84 hours and TwisterData's 18z run isn't out yet. Many of the points in your post are valid, however, as many of the same features are still in place on Saturday. I think Saturday is looking like it could be the better of the two days given the arrival of the trough. I've been hesitant to seriously consider the day so far though due to the terrible flip flopping of the GFS from run to run. I'd like to see what the WRF says tomorrow morning and see if lines up with the GFS, but I'll probably be playing the northern end of the dryline in KS where cape and shear are maximized. It could be a big day if that 2000 J/Kg and 70 knot jet intersection verifies.

 

[Jason Haller]

Jason, I think you are looking at Friday's setup as the 12z WRF is only up to Friday at 84 hours and TwisterData's 18z run isn't out yet.

it is showing that 84 hours out is 00Z Saturday for the NAM. am I reading this wrong?

 

[Skip Talbot]

0Z 4/25 is 0:00 UTC time for Saturday which is 7pm Friday CDT 4/24. I know I've made that mistake more than once

 

[Andrew Ryan]

00z Saturday is 7PM CDT Friday. Don't worry, a lot people make the same mistake!

This setup has had my attention since this weekend. As others have noted, the GFS keeps moving everything northward with each successive run. Hopefully it will stop this soon. The moisture looks excellent, easily the best moisture so far this year. The GoM doesn't look like it's in too bad of shape, upper 50s to mid 60s. Plenty of time to recover until Saturday. I don't have a lot of time to look at this now, but I will be looking at it in more detail tonight when the 00z run comes out.

 

[Adam Lucio]

Not going too in depth just yet. It is nice to see both the GFS and NAM showing CAPE around 2000 j/kg near the Dodge city area down to the OK border. With the forecast dews in the low 60s [best all year!] hopefully surface temps wont get into the mid 80s but I would expect we should see upper 70s which would creat some good LCLs.

Dont like the latest sagging cold front but I dont think that will be too much of an issue.

I threw up a risk area on my website for S&Gs right now. Saturday is looking good though at this point! I think the models will get a better handle on the pattern tomorrow once it begins to evolve. Were still in the wishcast point here but Im ready to go!

 

[Matt Gingery]

Jason, you really have hit the nail on the head. The ridge is forecast to break down somewhat, not sure how far east this will happen. I am in total agreement on Nebraska/Kansas/Oklahoma. It appears as if the main jet streak will be strongest through Nebraska and N. Kansas, however I also feel that there will be enough deep layer shear as far south as Oklahoma. I am concerned that this event may take place further west and much of the action that pushes into E. Kansas will become elevated and quickly break down due to strong subsidence in association with the ridge. Saturday looks great across W. Kansas/W. Oklahoma, into W. Texas. I like the Big Spring Tx. area into Lawton Ok., and even near the triple point near Liberal Ks. on Saturday. If this cut off low plays out like it is forecast we could see multiple events as shortwave disturbances pull the dryline into the forecast area on multiple days. If the CAP pops across the I-35 corridor we could see explosive development from El Reno to Wichita Falls. Fingers Crossed!

 

[Jeff Passner]

I think we'll be fighting a pretty strong cap on Saturday, especially down south (Tx, OK). The flow is from the southwest and it might bring some subtropical moisture (cirrus) across Texas. Right now, I'd think the best "play" will be in Kansas. Main concern would be the cold push on the front. There is some cold air (40s and 50s) behind that boundary in Nebraska so the hope is that the front does not sag south and undercut the storms.

However, I agree, it's still days away and the models have jumped back and forth on this pattern. Still, my first impression on Saturday is that the heights look pretty high and the speed max and vort maxes are headed to the north. I suspect a line of storms will explode after dark in the low-level jet all the way to Texas. Great to see a forecast for 60s dew points.... Wow... It's about time!

 

[Ryan Wichman]

Remembering we are still 96 hours out or so it is tough to get into any details. With that being said, I think eastern Kansas has a lot of potential on Saturday. There is ample shear with the strong low level jet and CAPE is AOA 750-1000 j/kg.

The main problem I see and Jeff you mentioned this as well will be the capping. This could really limit any convection until after sunset on Saturday when better forcing comes along. Still lots of time to sit and see what the models converge on.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

There is still a lot of disparity between the models about the details of the evolving upper low this weekend, however my confidence is increasing in regards to having at least one potentially great setup this weekend. It appears the GOM will actaully have a chance to recover over the next few days and transport sufficient moisture into the southern Plains (something we haven't seen since Feb 10th!) by Saturday afternoon. I still like the area around Dodge City, KS for SAT.....at least the way things stand right now.

The GFS is the most progressive of the models right now with the ECMWF somewhat slower and the WRF the slowest. I am curious to see if the models trend torwards a deeper/slower solution as we head into the weekend. From my point of view it is possible this system is slower to eject into the Plains than what is currently forecast. Could this result in a "day before the big day" setup on the high Plains Saturday with a more widespread event on SUN as the main upper low ejects? This scenario seems plausible, however the details have yet to come into focus.

With all of that said, my weekend is free and my 4Runner is ready to go!

 

[Andrew Stoller]

All I can say/hope at this point is that the ECMWF verifies, as it is slower and much more dynamic with the trough, with almost a negative tilt, less fronty, and a sub 1,000 mb surface low in southwest KS.

It's all wishcasting this far out!

 

[Warren Faidley]

The one concern I have is that heavy precipitation north of and along the front could drive it rapidly south (as often happens).

Regardless, such potential multi-day events do not come along all that often so maybe this is one of those times.

W.

 

[Niccolò Ubalducci]

Hi man, bad wrf today, the cold front its too fast for KS, maybe its better for Ok and TX penhandle, now we going to Greensburg and we will attempt the new emission.

What do you think chaser for western Kansas 25 April?

 

[Mike Smith]

Niccolo,

Considering we are still 3 days out, Greensburg would be a pretty good choice.

I rarely make prior to two days out but the area from Dodge City to El Dorado Lake down to Medford to Alva looks pretty good to me for Saturday, 25th.

Mike