4/14/2006 NOW: IL,IN,OH,KY,VA,WV, PA

[Kevin Bowman]

Tornado Watch 185 for most of illinois till 12am

SVR TStorm Watches 184 and 186 covering good portions of Indiana, Ohio, West Virgina and parts of PA.

Storms rapidly firing in north central illinois

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Some nice supercells across the T watches right now, with one cluster west-southwest of Chicago (with a strong mesocyclone in La Salle county WSW of KLOT), another along the central IL/IN border (again, decent mesocyclones present), with a third supercell pair east of Indiapolis. Mesoanalysis indicates strong low-level shear (>200 0-1km SRH, mainly from northeastern IL into IN) with >2500 CAPE across most areas of the watch, with southwesterly low-level flow beneath northwesterly upper-level flow. Discrete mode would favor tornadic supercells. Watch out for a strong tornado or two in IN given the instability and low-level shear present (and relatively low LCLs).

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Nice rightmover way south of Chicago in central IL, on the IL/IN border with a pretty apparent BWER and some serious rotation indicated on SRMV. Looks like it just merged with the cell to its south, too. There's another nice cell to its ENE in IN. And the cell just to the southwest of Chicago seems to show promise (it's torado warned, though I can't tell why). Looks like initiation is starting to pop further west in IL, too.

*edit* There's now a VERY pronounced hook on the cell to the NNW of KIND.

 

[Kenny Drake]

Both cells N/NW of Indianapolis are looking excellent, I wouldnt doubt a tornado with either cell right now and will probably see some large hail reports where BWER signature dissapates. I'm really wondering how the cells to their SE will affect or if they will? Winds are SWerly so they may not. Inflow showing up nicely on surface obs ahead of the cells. Td's seem to drop ahead of cells perhaps due to the others in SE IN and increasing distance from frontal boundary. I'm half expecting these 2 cells to weaken slightly (or at least become less of a tornado threat) as they move towards Indianapolis.

EDIT: With temps only in the low 70s those two cells may not weaken at all, look out Indy.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

live coverage from Indy

http://www.theindychannel.com/video/8706171/detail.html

http://www.theindychannel.com/index.html

 

[HAltschule]

Both tornadic supercells appear to each have one or possibly 2 distinct areas of tornadic activity with them. And it seems to me like there is a pretty decent likelihood that at least 1 of those on the Easternmost storm may be producing a strong tornado right now. Hail upwards of baseball size at times is also likely with these storms.

I don't see why these storms shouldn't maintain there strength, tornadic potential and track toward the INDY area over the next 1-2 hours. Should be interesting.

Anyone see any live TV streaming from INDY? I can;'t find anything....

EDIT: Thanks.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

the storm nw of indy has very strong rotation and a great hook, it is heading in the general direction of Indy, it look as it will greatly effect indys SW side.

is there a debris knob in the hook?

 

[Kenny Drake]

Rotation showing up very nicely on base velocity, tornado probably on the ground due to very low dewpoint depressions and the strong rotation. Does anyone know if Crawfordsville is heavily populated or not? That town looks like it could possibily take a direct hit.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

here are some webcames from Indy

http://warthog.imcpl.org/1/video.htm

lhttp://www.wthr.com/Global/category.asp?C=28215&nav=9Tao

http://www.wthr.com/Global/category.asp?C=28213&nav=9Tam

http://www.wishtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=45373&nav=0Ra850Tx

on the live feed i posted, they keep showing a packed baseball stadium, i really hope they know about this storm moving in.

 

[Kenny Drake]

Montgomery county official reporting that a weather spotter confirmed a tornado on the ground with the cell. I like this because you can hear the radio traffic in the background. This cell looks to parallel I-74 with the center of rotation coming very close to the interstate itself, could be a deadly situation.

AT 853 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NEW
RICHMOND...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.[/b]

Interesting because the storm looks to be moving SE?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

If the low-levels can resist decoupling as the sun sets, this HP supercell will present a signficant tornado risk to the Indianapolis area and location to its west in the near 6-90 minutes. A very large and nicely-organized mesocyclone persists, with strong rotation evident all the way to tilt 1. It sure would be nice if IND was a RAOB / sounding site... ILX and ILN aren't entirely impressive from a thermodynamic standpoint, but I have to think that there is decent CAPE over central and southern IN.

EDIT: Being the dummy that I am, I didn't realize that I was looking at the 0z soundings from yesterday, not today...

EDIT 2: The REAL 0z soundings taken an hour or two ago show an uncapped environment allowing for strong 0-3km CAPE. In addition, 0-3km SRH and 0-1km SRH are both quite high, which, with the strong low-level and total CAPE, support the risk of strong tornadoes. I'll be concerned with the western suburbs of IND in 45-60 minutes as the large supercell moves through that area. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/06041500_OBS/

 

[HAltschule]

State Police are reporting a tornado on the ground near Crawfordsville. It will be interesting to see how this supercell reacts with the boundaries that were ladi with the earlier convection over INDY. It just might enhance some of the local low-level shear.

Softball Sized (4.25") hail reported as well.

 

[Kenny Drake]

City of Indianapolis now included in a tornado warning for cell approaching from NW, I'm glad NWS issued this warning well ahead of time, as they just stated on the News there are several major outside events going on.

 

[HAltschule]

They are currently evacuating the sports stadium where a baseball game is underway. I believe they are telling people to stay in the infrastructure of the stadium and advising them not to leave in their cars. :blink:

Also...Purdue Streaming cam has lightning coming into view...

EDIT: Incidently, the most recent scan shows stronger G2G shear. On the current track, the possible tornado that has reportedly been on the ground occasioanlly, may pass near or directly over the doppler radar site (and IND Airport). Interesting...

 

[Kenny Drake]

Apparently there is a Pacers game going on right now... hopefully this storm becomes outflow dominant shortly, but it doesnt look like it right now -- still very evident inflow knotch.

EDIT: Looks like downtown Indy will be fine from a tornado threat, but hail damage could be a major problem. Tornado threat looks to pass through SW suburbs if the cell can sustain itself for another half hour.


EDIT: Report of semis blown off road and tree damage in/near Crawfordsville. Not sure I should be posting this, everyone probably just heard the same thing I did.