4/12-4/13/07 FCST: CO / WY (WINTER PRECIP)

[Mark Farnik]

Took Stan's advice and decided to go ahead and get a thread started on this potential winter storm that may slam the western High Plains and the Front Range of the Rockies in the Thursday/Friday time frame. The EMCWF has been consistently developing a surface low in the Four Corners region and moving it east/northeast along the CO/NM border, showing a 998 mb surface low centered near Arches National Park, UT at 132 hours (12z Thursday) then deepens the low to 984 mb over Liberal, KS at 144 hours out (12z Friday). With favorable upper air dynamics and at least 12 hours of strong east/northeasterly upslope flow, eastern CO/southeastern WY/western NE could be in for one hell of a late winter storm. What really worries me about this is that we had a similar, vicious winter storm six years ago on April 11,2001, in which a half to three quarter inch ice accumulation preceded a foot to foot and a half of wet, wind driven snow. Most of eastern Colorado was out of power for the better part of a week, and the region was declared a disaster area due to massive damage to the power infrastructure. This storm is a near doppleganger of that 2001 storm. Which, after the winter we've had around here, is the absolute LAST thing anybody wants to see...
And the irony of having a bad storm forecast for Friday the 13th is not lost on me whatsoever.
It's still almost a week out and as we know the models could flip flop quite drastically between now and then, but it definitely bears very close watching...

 

[Stan Rose]

Well, unless there's another model swing, think ill save gas and chase the blizzard instead. all of ern CO has great potential, especially above 6K ft. could be quite a storm. SInce i missed chasing the dec blizzard due to work, might as well enjoy this one!

 

[mark plate]

This is shaping up to possibly be a record breaking April snow event for parts of Kansas and northern Oklahoma as well. The Oklahoma part is still iffy, but the chance is definitely not zero of a heavy snowfall even as far southeast as here in Tulsa. 1.7 inches is our record April snow. If the new 12Z WRF/NAM is 100% accurate, that record is likely to fall by early Saturday morning. That is a big IF however.

 

[Mike Umscheid]

Major snowstorm unfolding over western Kansas. Radar/lightning plot suggests thundersnow now over far southwest KS at this time (16z). We are a cold rain mixed with sleet and a rogue large snowflake at 34F here in Dodge City...expected to changeover anytime. Expecting 6"+ here in Dodge City