Jeff House
Supporter
Looks like potential for a few tornadoes east of I-45 if morning rain can eject fast enough for destabilization along the dryline. Veering 850 winds are somewhat of a concern but a lifting warm front situation will promote excellent 0-1km shear. Assuming the day is not just a rain-out, that same warm front will bring in adequate instability. The front that will retreat north is struggling to clear the coast as of Friday, and rich moisture lurks just south of it.
I expect morning rain to push through much of TX and OK. The extent and duration of the rain will determine how far north the warm front makes it, but I expect it between I-20 and the Red River. Rain could also leave outflow separate form the warm front, providing another focus. It will take until mid-afternoon for the atmosphere to start recharging. Look for a few discrete cells to fire along the dryline with the best supercells near the warm front and/or outflow boundaries. The warm front DL intersection could fill in with precip, so it might be a day to look just a bit south along the dryline. Storms should stay discrete for a few hours before congealing into a line with embedded tornadoes.
Barring the all day rain scenario, I believe northeast Texas will see a couple tornadoes that can be chased. Activity moving into Louisiana and Arkansas may become more difficult to chase for numerous reasons including terrain, HP structures, clusters of storms, and somewhat linear evolution.
I expect morning rain to push through much of TX and OK. The extent and duration of the rain will determine how far north the warm front makes it, but I expect it between I-20 and the Red River. Rain could also leave outflow separate form the warm front, providing another focus. It will take until mid-afternoon for the atmosphere to start recharging. Look for a few discrete cells to fire along the dryline with the best supercells near the warm front and/or outflow boundaries. The warm front DL intersection could fill in with precip, so it might be a day to look just a bit south along the dryline. Storms should stay discrete for a few hours before congealing into a line with embedded tornadoes.
Barring the all day rain scenario, I believe northeast Texas will see a couple tornadoes that can be chased. Activity moving into Louisiana and Arkansas may become more difficult to chase for numerous reasons including terrain, HP structures, clusters of storms, and somewhat linear evolution.
