4/12/07 NOW: TX

[bill mudd]

ok
just spotted two funnel clouds just north of LITTLEFIELD AT 415 PM
slowly moving north northeast....on 285 heading into springdale

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Initiation appears to be underway NW of Lubbock. Latest mesoanalysis indicates marginal CAPE (<1000 j/kg sbCAPE) across western Texas, but what's lacking in instability is being compensated for by shear. Latest Jayton profiler ( http://weather.cod.edu/mcprofiler/JTNT2.6min.gif ) shows a very favorable shear profile for supercells. Strong flow aloft, combined with backed low-level flow, is yielding ~60 kt 0-6km shear... If this were a local chase, I'd certainly be out there, since there is a good possibility of very photogenic supercells this afternoon through evening. While shear is strong, relatively terrible low-level moisture is keeping LCLs high (amongst other things), so I think the tornado threat is minimal.

 

[Jody Radzik]

We just had a nice convective snow shower in Santa Fe which left about an inch of grapple on the ground. This shortwave is headed straight for TX, so perhaps that will be a significant initiation factor over the next few hours or so.

 

[Adam Atkins]

Wow I bet those storms are gorgeous...looking forward to the pics. The LBB radar is showing large anvil precip spread but barely 55 dBZ, albeit a tight reflectivity gradient, at the lowest tilts. The 3rd tilt has a nice radar hole on the storm NW of Plainview and shows good mid-level rotation.

EDIT: Wow Td's are barely 40 degrees in LBB and 39 at PVW...these must be incredibly high based

 

[Rich Thompson]

Looking at W TX mesonet plots, the near-storm T-Td spreads are not ridiculous (~22-25 F). I still think the environment is very marginal for any tornado threat, but you could end up with an interesting barberpole updraft before dark on the caprock.

It's too bad the original NAM/GFS forecasts for today weren't correct...I wouldn't be typing this message if they were

Rich T.