Tom Dulong
EF2
This is likely more a "wishcast" than forecast, but...
Based on latest GFS model:
* Fairly strong upper wave punching east across ArkLaTex region
* 55-60 deg F surface dewpoints advecting up from Gulf of Mexico
* Good 0-6 km shear based on surface/850mb/500mb winds
* Hint of 75-80 deg F advecting into area from south TX
* Chance of occurrence of any severe weather ramps up quickly for
ArkLaTex region next two weeks, based on NSSL data...at link
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/tanim8094/...evanim8094.html
A squall line is more likely than supercells in the south this time of year, but there are always exceptions.
Based on latest GFS model:
* Fairly strong upper wave punching east across ArkLaTex region
* 55-60 deg F surface dewpoints advecting up from Gulf of Mexico
* Good 0-6 km shear based on surface/850mb/500mb winds
* Hint of 75-80 deg F advecting into area from south TX
* Chance of occurrence of any severe weather ramps up quickly for
ArkLaTex region next two weeks, based on NSSL data...at link
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/tanim8094/...evanim8094.html
A squall line is more likely than supercells in the south this time of year, but there are always exceptions.