3-25-07 FCST: TX/OK/NE/IA/MO/IL

[Josh Richardson]

DAY 1 outlook has confirmed what Ive been saying all along and has encompassed SE MN into the MOD risk and they are now calling for initiation in S Central MN as I said. My original target area of Osage to Austin still looks intact and we are planning on heading to the Austin area just in case a cell fires a few miles back west or to the north. I will update again in the morning but for now its time to get some rest.

 

[Jim Zandonai]

Yep it appears that way. The risk area shifted back north at least the slight risk area.The moderate area has been a bullseye in SE MN and West WI. pretty much all along. Would have been nice to be further south but I guess those that are far away and want it bad enough will do the trek. Appears late afternoon or evening on timing..

 

[Scott Weberpal]

DAY 1 outlook has confirmed what Ive been saying all along and has encompassed SE MN into the MOD risk and they are now calling for initiation in S Central MN as I said. My original target area of Osage to Austin still looks intact and we are planning on heading to the Austin area just in case a cell fires a few miles back west or to the north. I will update again in the morning but for now its time to get some rest.

Sit a little north and east of where you think initiation will be. These won't be slow moving storms, and without strong istability won't exactly explode either. Hopefully storms can initiate over the prairies and do something before moving into the hills...

 

[Bill Doms]

Looks like a go today with IA clearng off and dews into the mid to upper 50's streaming north into MN. Lobe of the vort max in eastern SD as the trigger. NAM generated hodos were not that impressive so as Scott stated, hoping the cells can get cranking before the H85 and H5 winds align and send an arc of storms racing off to the northeast. Storm motions appear to be 30-40 kts...uggggh.

 

[Ross Lazear]

7 AM CDT dewpoint at Decorah, IA (DEH) of 58... =) Also, incredibly quick clearing already occurring, as overnight convection in Nebraska/Iowa didn't really happen as forecast.

Looks like I'll be sticking with Albert Lea to Austin, MN as the target for me. I'd like to catch storm initiation... These locations are relatively close to the promising upper features (SW-WSW jet aloft over IA and upper vort. max upstream over central MN). I also like the nose of drier air that is forecast to move through this area along the front...seems like it could be a focal point for convective initiation. MPX/ARX and SPC continue to talk about a transition in storm mode to a more linear mode by evening, so I'd certainly like to catch these storms early before they rapidly move NE and become more like bowing segments than supercells.

Good luck, all!

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Well Im afraid I may sit this one out.. I think APritchard is Right. we really have no low level convergence to fire anything up.. After talking to a fellow chaser last night, he called the SREF "eye candy" Even this mornings runs shows favorable setup down here.. With school tommorow, im not sure bout heading out. Dubuqe is a 3 hour drive from here, and I cant leave until 1 because my chase parter has class.. Hopefully 12Z SWODY1 can help me out a little better.

 

[Joel Wright]

Looks like initiation will begin mid-afternoon in south-central Minnesota, and maybe north-central Iowa.

Everything still looks good to me. I don't see anything hindering development in these areas, so it's definitely a go for us.

We'll be heading up to New Hampton Iowa initially, and then may end up crossing the border into MN depending on how things look at that point.

Good luck everyone!

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

New 12z outlook out... Think Im sittn this one out boys..'

Subject to change upon the new 1630Z outlook..

 

[Josh Richardson]

Still planning on the Austin MN area but as someone else indicated I may be making a play towards the ENE. Either way I feel a pretty good setup should start around the area with a decent road network to utilize as well. Good luck to everyone today.

 

[Dean Baron]

heading out to meet my partner right now and then heading down to Owatonna- Faribault area around 11. good luck to anyone else chasing!

 

[Bill Schintler]

Chase target for Sunday, March 25

Chase target:
Dubuque, IA.

Timing:
4 PM.

Storm Mode:
Supercell storms, which will develop and move very rapidly to the northeast at 50 mph.

Synopsis:
AM analysis indicates split-flow UA pattern with low-amplitude northern-branch flow along the CONUS/CAN border ridging in the central US while a 90kt H3 streak was ejecting from the southern-branch trough and was lifting though the OK/TK panhandles and central KS. An associated H7 closed circulation centered over central SD with a 45kt speed max surging through ERN NEB while a veering LLJ was beginning to push the richest moisture east of IA/MN. At the surface, low-pressure over central SD was embedded within the negatively-tilted trough axis extending from Saskatchewan though the Dakotas and into NEB. An axis of mid-50’s dewpoints had worked from IA into SERN MN. Clearing had taking place in most areas while 14Z WV imagery indicated impressive circulation center over SERN SD along with a vorticity ribbon diving into NWRN IA and a broad area of assent approaching the IA/MO border from the S.

Discussion:
Tricky forecast because of the orientation of the UA forcing along with the EWRD-shifting moisture axis and lack of any obvious SFC boundaries. Two potential areas are noted – the first in the left-exit region of the 70kt H5 streak in NWRN WI while a secondary forcing bulls eye should exist further S in extreme ERN IA into SWRN WI in the right-entrance region of the same streak and at the nose of the most favorable SFC moisture axis. Lift in this area should also be enhanced by a compact H5 vort max lifting NE from NRN MO. Forecast soundings (GFS, NGM, NAM) indicate modest instability, with MLCAPE’s in the 500-1000J/kg range; coupled with strong deep-layer shear of 50 kts and fairly high cloud basis of 1500 M.

- bill

 

[Skip Talbot]

I'm in Waterloo getting data at the Panera. I love the 64/61 obs reading here. The sun is out in full force. We'll probably head north up 63 to the MN border for a 21z initiation. Shear looks excellent at this location and the RUC has CAPE up to 1500 JKg in the area. I'd like to get on these storms at initiation while they are still in good chase terrain.

 

[Jeremy Ludin]

This is Joel Wright on Jeremy Ludin's laptop..

We're currently in New Hampton IA gathering some data. So far everything looks good. It's really cleared out here now. We may head to near the border of MN as well. Just waiting for initiation....

 

[Jerry Funfsinn]

Currently sitting in Hope, MN under a nice cu field. "Hope"ful and waiting.
Jerry Funfsinn
http://www.creativejetstream.com