Ross Lazear
EF0
The 12Z NCEP WRF (NMM) was certainly a bit farther to the west than the latest 00Z run, which seems to put the best tornado/supercell potential more toward SE Minnesota, rather than SW/SC Minnesota.... I agree with Scott's post above, which states that the terrain in this area is pretty bad for chasing.
The event itself still looks quite interesting, though. Upper jet dynamics are quite favorable for ample ascent. A decent upper southwesterly jet over IA (on the eastern flank of the upper wave) by 18Z Sunday puts southern/SE Minnesota in the left-front exit region. A slight easterly component to the surface winds help out with shear in the lowest few kms. Also, the WRF-NMM also wants to produce CAPEs to nearly 2500 over the IA/MN/WI border by 00Z. The GFS is much less, but I'll claim that that's simply a low-CAPE bias in the GFS. I do like that both the NCEP's operational WRF and GFS seem to be coming together pretty well, as far as cyclone and front placement go.
Problems with this might be lack of instability, with the potential for morning clouds and rain from whatever develops tomorrow night to the south. Also, it's March 25, and we're talking about the MN/IA/WI area...so it could be difficult to actually get low 60s dewpoints this far north (though the models seem to certainly want to). And you can't forget 3/29/98, when an F3 tornado wreaked havoc on St. Peter, MN.
As of now, I'd target Albert Lea, MN and plan to move east into the bluff country (yikes) with the advancing front throughout the afternoon. It's still pretty far out though, so a lot can change...!
The event itself still looks quite interesting, though. Upper jet dynamics are quite favorable for ample ascent. A decent upper southwesterly jet over IA (on the eastern flank of the upper wave) by 18Z Sunday puts southern/SE Minnesota in the left-front exit region. A slight easterly component to the surface winds help out with shear in the lowest few kms. Also, the WRF-NMM also wants to produce CAPEs to nearly 2500 over the IA/MN/WI border by 00Z. The GFS is much less, but I'll claim that that's simply a low-CAPE bias in the GFS. I do like that both the NCEP's operational WRF and GFS seem to be coming together pretty well, as far as cyclone and front placement go.
Problems with this might be lack of instability, with the potential for morning clouds and rain from whatever develops tomorrow night to the south. Also, it's March 25, and we're talking about the MN/IA/WI area...so it could be difficult to actually get low 60s dewpoints this far north (though the models seem to certainly want to). And you can't forget 3/29/98, when an F3 tornado wreaked havoc on St. Peter, MN.
As of now, I'd target Albert Lea, MN and plan to move east into the bluff country (yikes) with the advancing front throughout the afternoon. It's still pretty far out though, so a lot can change...!
The best risk for isolated supercells and tornados would be in the southwest portion of the moderate risk and even back into portions of the slight risk area from I-90 south during the early stages of this severe weather event (before the storms congeal into a squalline). I plan on targeting an area to the southeast of Albert Lea MN. Things could change though and it would be nice if the SPC moved the moderate risk area further to the south and west 
