3/23/11 FCST: IN/OH/KY/WV

[James Gustina]

18Z run of the NAM has a nice low sitting over western Illinois/eastern Iowa by 12Z on Wednesday. It looks like the warm front will be draped over central Ohio with winds coming out of the S/SW at about 15 knots. Dews should be climbing into the upper 50s going into the late afternoon/early evening. Right now, the NAM has a pretty good chunk of MLCAPE situated in the Ohio River Valley by 21Z, with values getting to maybe 1000-1500 j/kg by early evening. If the NAM's guess is right then the storm motion'll prolly be at about 260 degrees east at about 40 knotsThe biggest limiting factor with this setup will be the shear. The directional shear forecasted right now is poor at best, although speed shear is more than ample for a linear segment/squall line, especially considering the jet max going over the area in the mid-levels.

Thats a pretty lax forecast so please add on anything that I missed

 

[Bryan Wood]

I agree about the favorable squall line atmosphere. I'm intrigued by tomorrow's setup, the 06z GFS has a small cap over SE IN/SW OH with a 1000 j/kg MUCape at 1800Z tomorrow. There's a chance for a discrete supercell or two ahead of the Squall Line depending on the timing. I'm leaving work at 11 am to observe tomorrow.

 

[Zack Hargrove]

I am also intrigued about tomorrow. I really like the bulk shear values, I just wish there was more directional shear. The things that do excite me are the forecast CAPE values, the slower storm motion, and the low P-WATS. If a few discrete supercells can fire out ahead of the line, they could be very photogenic, regardless of tornadic potential. I think that a few of my fellow MET students are going to leave the UNCA campus around 11:30 AM and get into East/Central Kentucky and maybe into Southern Ohio. For some reason, I just have a good feeling about tomorrow. I am thinking that the threat could be upgraded to a MOD Risk, simply because of the strong possibility of some really serious hail and straight line winds. I believe if there is at least a 10% tornado threat then it could be a fun day.

 

[Bryan Wood]

Some modest capping (MUCIN) here in SW Ohio. I'm going to start at the I-71/U.S. 68 interchange north of Wilmington, which will allow me to travel in any direction once we start to get clues where convection will initiate.

 

[Zack Hargrove]

I'm a little worried about the storm motion now. Runs earlier in the week were showing slower storm motions, but it looks as if they have trended towards faster moving motions in areas with road networks that aren't that great. However, it still seems as if there is a decent shot of some super cells firing ahead of the main like. Jackson, KY AFD seems to be moving towards a few supercells with strong rotation (more favorable for hail than tornadoes though) and some isolated tornadoes. Because of the lower tornado threat, we are probably going to leave NC and hang around in Central/Eastern Kentucky. If the tornado threat was greater, we would probably try to get into Ohio, but to me it seems that Southeastern OH is pretty awful territory for chasing. I guess Eastern Kentucky isn't really much better, but its a lot closer. I am mainly making the goal of this chase structure pictures and observations since the PWATS still seem to be very modest. Any supercells that fire may be pretty given a decent view. Wouldn't mind seeing some hail on the ground either, but I don't know if I want my car in the core of any of these storms as the hail could get pretty ridiculous given the possible strength of these updrafts! Right now, we are planning on heading towards Corbin, KY and then we will re-evaluate when we arrive.

 

[Chip Redmond]

After watching the thunderstorms roll through northeast Ohio at high speeds and seeing the new model runs with storm motions, I'm going sit this one out. They were absolutely flying! Clearing is promising and I could see things getting pretty interesting. It just depends on if convection can stay discrete. Directional shear hasn't improved a whole lot however and a nice squall line looks like it may take over storm mode. Will sit an see just incase instability creeps enough northward to watch it fly by the workplace.

Chip