3/12/06 FCST: IL

[Jason McIntosh]

I know a similiar thread has been started on 3/12, but I will keep it specific to IL. I believe that this state will be the target of a large tornado outbreak on Sunday. The SPC has already put out a large MDT Risk area and I wouldn't be surprised if there was a HIGH Risk put out by tomorrow evening. The models show a change in weather pattern after Monday to a more zonal flow. I have noticed after most big storm systems come through the overall pattern in weather will turn tranquil.

Having said this; I will be in IL expecting the first good outbreak of tornadoes for the year. What do you all think?

 

[Scott Lincoln]

I think the current 03/12 FCST thread covers this area already. I know the title says S MO River Valley, but they have been mentioning Missouri, IL, etc. Perhaps this should get moved there.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Map Room Rules
(7) There will not be more than one FCST thread, one NOW thread, one REPORTS thread, and one DISC thread for any one date. An exception will be allowed ONLY if another event is taking place within a much different geographic area (e.g. dryline storms in TX/OK, warm front storms in IA). A single target area spanning multiple states is not justification in itself to create additional threads.

The northern MO/IL target will likely see initiation from the warm front, while the southern targets will be impacted by the dryline, but it's all part of a single system. Typically, more than one thread for a particular day is allowed if there are different systems that are causing the convection (such as a sfc low in Texas and a low in Illinois. In this case, it may be scattered convection from MO/IL southward to TX, without much of a "gap" that would help make this two seperate events.