25W on its way to the Philippines...

Again, a cyclone has formed ESE of Luzon, and forecast to move west and reach the Philippines more or less affecting the same area of Durian (at least with rain...).

Unbelievable, I don't remember a series like this one ever ! One after another ! After some years of quiet, this season is going to last for a long time for them...

The JTWC track looks good as the ecmwf has had a typhoon crossing the Phillipines around the area of 11N for several runs now. The convection looks impressive with cold cloud tops. Typhoon intensity is pretty much certain before landfall. This future typhoon is tracking a few hundred miles south of the last several events.
Massive evacuation is undergoing in the Naga/Legazpi area, you can see some pictures at Geoff Mackley's website, who is still in the Philippines:

The storm rapidly exploded yesterday with very cold and deep convection over the center. Shear is low, outflow is once again excellent in all direction.