2026-04-01 EVENT: TX/OK/KS/MO

[Mike Smith]

I'm surprised no one has started a thread about tomorrow (Wednesday) as it should be a good day for chasing given the geography.

The 12Z Tuesday Canadian has the short wave coming out with a slight negative tilt and a pretty fair amount of difluence over Kansas and Oklahoma. Td's are forecast to be in the 60's throughout the region. The same model is forecast MUCAPE's 3000j+ in places. 250mb winds are > 90 knots over Kansas.

There seem to be two areas of interest: One from (using the old watch format) 50 mi. north of ICT to FSI, 70 miles either side of the line. The second, more subtle is near the warm front over east central Kansas. Lots of moisture pooling and very high CAPEs in places.

 

[Jeff House]

Indeed Wednesday looks like a chase day. I'm not buying the NAM slop, which is driven by its usual thermo profile issues. Just a few degrees more warming (shown by other CAMs) and storm mode looks more intriguing.

Any morning rain is forecast to be out of the target area by dawn. That's perfect for laying down outflow boundaries which enhance local low-level shear. Should allow plenty of time for the air mass to recover, especially along and west of I-35.

Upper shear both speed and turning is adequate to robust. Low level shear is reasonably good; and, it'll be enhanced hear said outflow boundaries. Tough to forecast their placement day ahead, but definitely look for 'em Wednesday morning. I find it easier to discern them mid-morning satellite; then from there, follow with all methods including surface chart.

I like the warm front in Kansas, especially if it can get free of clouds, bake and then percolate for a couple hours.
If I were still near DFW I'd take the ol' 287 out of FTW and see how things pop in Texas along the DL.
Oklahoma will be crowded though it's the middle of the ENH. My prediction? Storm chaser drama!