2025-04-05 EVENT: AR/LA/TX/KY/TN/MS/AL/IN/OH

[Jeff House]

Saturday could offer some supercells in chasable terrain. Though the window is narrow both in space and in time.

First upstairs the winds turn just enough with height. One challenge will be SW at 200/300 mb vs a nice WSW regime. Turning between 500-700 mb is meager plus a few other kinks in the hodograph are noted. That said the lower part of the sounding should be excellent. LLJ should respond to the approaching upper trough. Lowest levels should back especially if we can get a surface low in Arkansas.

Instability is robust in Arkansas and Louisiana. The Delta gets narrow into Louisiana but it is par width from southeast Arkansas into adjacent Mississippi. Speaking of Mississippi, low clouds need to burn off toward the earlier part of the model envelope. Otherwise decreasing instability will not help maintain any prefrontal cells.

Storm mode will be areal mess on the synoptic front. Chasers need the prefrontal trough to go ahead. That far south the turning with height upstairs is not great, but the instability is so. Could get discrete development right in that choice Delta terrain east side of the 10%. Even then they might not stay discrete for more than a couple hours, perhaps occasional discrete for max 3-4 hrs.

I infer the 06Z Day 2 tor probs are more for QLCS stuff by its location. Chasers really need something new going up on the LA/MS line also AR/MS if instability can get north a bit. I'm on the fence to go, but I figure it needs a thread.

 

[Preston Bradley]

I was able to sit down and finally look at it this evening. Per the HREF guidance, there appears to be height rises around 18z into 20z timeframe, which is when prefrontal storms were supposed to fire up. Have concerns with timing of shortwave and even concern if there are height rises in the time frame I mentioned. Chasing for me looks iffy. As a side note, the RRFS showing prefrontal convection struggling tomorrow which is a shocker given the aggressive history it is known to have. For me, will see if anything pops up but outside of that will not consider tomorrow an official chase day and will see what the next one holds when that time comes.

 

[Preston Bradley]

With the increase confidence for discrete cells across the Louisiana Delta into the Mississippi Delta will make the attempt to chase. My current plan is to probably head towards Vicksburg, MS before heading north. This will be the best route as it gives me the option to head north or continue west if storms begin firing off before crossing the river. This will put me in the best position for the day. I do have a thought of heading to into Yazoo City, MS. This will be consider my second option if storms decided to develop more northward. However, this will be the more aggressive approach based on the current model guidance.

 

[James Wilson]

Yesterday started out slow but ramped up quickly. We drove through a rain wrapped tornado east of mentor city. Then we followed that cell to New Albany and then over to Blue Springs Mississippi for a couple more tornadoes. We topped the night off near Tupelo and caught one last one north of town.

 

[Preston Bradley]

I decided not to chase as you mentioned storms started off slow and did not think it was worth my time to chase. Glad that you were able to get something out of it. For me, driving all that way out to Blue Springs and New Albany was not worth it. Also, I tend not to chase east of I-55. This is my general rule of thumb for me at least, especially when solo chasing.