2019 Atlantic Season Discussion

[ISiegel]

Reviewing the model runs, the GFS has the future Humberto/Imelda doing virtually the same thing as Dorian, which seems kinda fishy to me. While, the Euro model has it dissipating at 120 Hours, wonder why?

 

[JamesCaruso]

James,Tues. 8-27, the NHC had Dorian reaching Florida as a 70mph Tropical Storm, on 8-31...
Sat.,it was a Cat 5 just east of the Bahamas.
Still, at this present time, numerical models run 'poor' this far out,w/ tropical entities.

I agree Kevin but my post at the time was really based not so much on forecast but on the fact that the disturbance was already moving NW. I felt it was going to be at a latitude that was too far north, while the storm was still too close to Africa, to ever be on a typical Cape Verde hurricane path that threatens the islands or US.

 

[Warren Faidley]

As a sidebar note.... The models are showing Invest 94 (AL94) moving in a favorable direction over the next 10 day. The GFS shows it becoming a tropical cyclone and the NHC discussion calls for a 70% chance of formation over the next five days. Looks like this will be the next possible chase, though a long way out. I believe we will see at least one major Gulf event over the next 30 days.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The GFS has a wicked sense of humor. Fantasy land at over 300 hours, but something to watch.

 

[ISiegel]

I really don't like the 18z GFS run, but one oddity I've noticed was that the storm goes directly over the mountains of Hispanola as a Cat 3 and surviving.