Ethan Schisler
EF5
I haven't seen anyone start an event thread on tomorrow yet so I figured I might as well get the ball rolling, better late than never. The latest 18z 3km NAM ran (and the 12z) have me quite intrigued for the tri-state area of KS/CO/NE tomorrow evening if we can realize upper 50s dew points in this region ahead of the dry line/surface low that should be positioned in Northeast Colorado (~992mb).
Ahead of this feature, the 3km NAM is showing a rapid and quite generous feed of moisture into the high plains region. It has a general regime of mid to upper 50's dew points however even a few low 60s being located in Northwest Kansas.
Whether this is realistic or not, is the question. I think moisture will be the factor that keeps this event from either being a few hailers or a couple tornadic supercells that fire up.
Obviously with it showing these moisture values on the high plains, instability values are quite generous as well with values of in excess of 1500 J/KG showing up as well. This all gets set into motion when an 70-80 knot H5 jet pushes onto the high plains tomorrow evening around 00z, firing storms along the dry-line/surface low region. If I was chasing, which I haven't decided if I'm going to, I would probably target the area around Burlington, CO right off I-70. That way I could drop south for the stuff that may form in Southeast Colorado and track into Western Kansas or move north and grab the stuff that fires along the surface low.
Overall my main concerns for this event will be moisture and I have some reservations about backing-aloft that I've seen on the soundings, which could do some things for storm mode, however moisture is my number 1 concern at the moment.
![8bf26763208266c50cc874f3a47eff71.png 8bf26763208266c50cc874f3a47eff71.png](https://stormtrack.org/data/attachments/16/16214-4880528fc5bf1d34f64b572565718c04.jpg)
Ahead of this feature, the 3km NAM is showing a rapid and quite generous feed of moisture into the high plains region. It has a general regime of mid to upper 50's dew points however even a few low 60s being located in Northwest Kansas.
![dc0e7273af82ce65536fe8dd7cd9cc35.png dc0e7273af82ce65536fe8dd7cd9cc35.png](https://stormtrack.org/data/attachments/16/16213-df891a78f06331ca5c404abe7502ef6a.jpg)
Whether this is realistic or not, is the question. I think moisture will be the factor that keeps this event from either being a few hailers or a couple tornadic supercells that fire up.
![50fcfc64848a36eaada030f7849e4748.png 50fcfc64848a36eaada030f7849e4748.png](https://stormtrack.org/data/attachments/16/16212-b9b4b86c216aea03d184e3d290905aa4.jpg)
Obviously with it showing these moisture values on the high plains, instability values are quite generous as well with values of in excess of 1500 J/KG showing up as well. This all gets set into motion when an 70-80 knot H5 jet pushes onto the high plains tomorrow evening around 00z, firing storms along the dry-line/surface low region. If I was chasing, which I haven't decided if I'm going to, I would probably target the area around Burlington, CO right off I-70. That way I could drop south for the stuff that may form in Southeast Colorado and track into Western Kansas or move north and grab the stuff that fires along the surface low.
Overall my main concerns for this event will be moisture and I have some reservations about backing-aloft that I've seen on the soundings, which could do some things for storm mode, however moisture is my number 1 concern at the moment.