2016 lessons learned

[Paul Lemery]

This year I learned that having patience really does pay off and you shouldn't throw all of your planning out the window on a last second whim. We sat at a gas station in Turkey, TX for hours waiting for for storms to develop. The wait finally paid off when a storm finally produced a nice wedge tornado right at dark. Perfect.

The next day we again patiently waited on a hill in the Oklahoma panhandle in our perfectly selected location. It was a perfect. That lasted until a small storm popped in Minneola, KS and we took off after it. Our quick decision to leave our target area allowed us to see the awesome display of tornadoes in Dodge City. So I also learned to be decisive and move quickly or you may miss out.

I hope this helps. I've made the wrong call more times than I'd like to admit, but even a bust day is better than any day at work. I guess sometimes just going with your gut is the right call and don't kick yourself if it ends up being a bust day.

 

[samuel stone]

I learned never to submit to not chasing even if your not gonna get off till 7pm. (5/25/16 abilene-chapman) SAW IT

Learned you may as well just flip a coin when deciding which day to try and get off work, rather than make an educated meteorological decision 3 days in advanced (5/25/16 vs. 5/26/16)

 

[Paul Knightley]

After 16 years chasing in the Plains I continue to learn that you can never have too much experience!

Indeed, in some ways that played against us this year, tornado-wise. I was interested in not heading to the obvious place along with everyone else, and trying to see something a bit different. That's great, but we then missed the Dodge City fest! The next day was actually more annoying, having cited Salina as a potential location, and then getting trolled by the stuff nearer Wichita. However, you have to make the best of what you have!

A couple of days later we found ourselves in N Cent KS, with a rather messy situation we we knew we might have the chance of some non-supercell/mesocyclone-type events. We saw a great funnel cloud, which really gave us a boost after the other days, and then some nice structure on a supercell near Russell, a bit later.

The main lesson is that chasing just makes me want to come back again and again!

 

[James Gustina]

Just the few that I can think of that came specifically out of 2016 for me:

• A boundary intersecting the dryline is almost always more reliable than just the dryline itself (May 24)
• April setups with more than one possible limiting factor almost always fail (April 26)
• May heals all wounds to a season that starts slow/poorly
• Osage County is a hellhole that ruins dreams (March 31)
• Northward moving storms provide some of the best backlighting opportunities for tornadoes (May 24)

 

[Jeff House]

Stick to your system. Sure it is art as much as science, so some flexibility is required. However we could have doubled our tornado day count sticking to our DL/OFB system. Sunday May 22 we jumped on first convection after a long hot afternoon. Missed photogenic tornado the 14Z HRRR basically nailed (cell on DL/OFB intersection in TX Panhandle). Monday May 23 sticking to the system paid off in Woodward. Tuesday May 24, we enjoyed the Dodge City shootout on the boundary intersection. Wed May 25 we missed Chapman by picking that boundary east of Wichita because stronger surface winds were noted. Chapman started on the DL intersection with another OFB farther north. Tough choice? Not really in hindsight, because the Wichita boundary was too far from the DL. Still it was a great trip seeing the entire Dodge City shootout from inception to last cycle.

 

[David Williams]

Don't underestimate an E - W oriented warm front with supercells tracking east along it (May 25th). An air mass boundary is more powerful than an OFB... factor in the orientation... dynamite!

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[JamesCaruso]

Late to this thread as I am to most...

Disappointments and failures drive lessons learned, and my biggest disappointment/failure of 2016 was missing Chapman while I was screwing around east of Wichita. Obviously I am not the only one this happened to. But the thought process that led to it was the worst part. You may recall that earlier in the day it seemed to be a marginal setup; the slight risk did not even come out until a later outlook. I had a general sense of complacency after Dodge City the previous day. I made the decision to chase at the last minute, after jerking around most of the morning and then having to deal with a flat tire on our rental. I decided it wouldn't be a bad idea to head to Wichita because if nothing happened I could hang out in the city, have my first proper sit-down dinner in five days, and maybe swap out my rental car at the airport because I was nervous driving long distances on a tire that had been plugged. On radar I saw the storm go up on the boundary to the north while still en route to Wichita. It was 85 miles away, I couldn't see deviating from the target area and racing an hour and a half to get to the first storm that happened to pop up. I'm thinking, "what's the big deal, it can't be better than what we saw yesterday!" Between this thought pattern, and allowing myself to be influenced by what other chasers were doing, I stayed the course to Wichita and have regretted it ever since.

Lessons learned, in no particular order:

1. As others have said, don't ignore marginal setups - especially if on a chase vacation for a limited time. Yes it might not be worth a six hour drive for a marginal setup but this one was well within reach

2. Don't be complacent. What you saw yesterday has nothing to do with what you might see today. Each day is statistically independent of what might have happened the day before.

3. Optimize your chances of seeing a good storm,
don't make targeting decisions based on potential alternative activities (i.e., dinner) that you could indulge in if you don't see storms

4. Chasing is a microcosm of life - the lesson about complacency can be applied to the rest of your life. And there is a life lesson in keeping one's ego in check - don't allow yourself to get too high on success, because you can immediately fall off your high horse. Stay humble!

5. Notwithstanding the above, don't be too hard on yourself. It was in many respects an understandable state of mind to be in, after the magic (and emotional exhaustion) of Dodge City the day before.




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[David Williams]

Late to this thread as I am to most...

Disappointments and failures drive lessons learned, and my biggest disappointment/failure of 2016 was missing Chapman while I was screwing around east of Wichita. Obviously I am not the only one this happened to. But the thought process that led to it was the worst part. You may recall that earlier in the day it seemed to be a marginal setup; the slight risk did not even come out until a later outlook. I had a general sense of complacency after Dodge City the previous day. I made the decision to chase at the last minute, after jerking around most of the morning and then having to deal with a flat tire on our rental. I decided it wouldn't be a bad idea to head to Wichita because if nothing happened I could hang out in the city, have my first proper sit-down dinner in five days, and maybe swap out my rental car at the airport because I was nervous driving long distances on a tire that had been plugged. On radar I saw the storm go up on the boundary to the north while still en route to Wichita. It was 85 miles away, I couldn't see deviating from the target area and racing an hour and a half to get to the first storm that happened to pop up. I'm thinking, "what's the big deal, it can't be better than what we saw yesterday!" Between this thought pattern, and allowing myself to be influenced by what other chasers were doing, I stayed the course to Wichita and have regretted it ever since.

Lessons learned, in no particular order:

1. As others have said, don't ignore marginal setups - especially if on a chase vacation for a limited time. Yes it might not be worth a six hour drive for a marginal setup but this one was well within reach

2. Don't be complacent. What you saw yesterday has nothing to do with what you might see today. Each day is statistically independent of what might have happened the day before.

3. Optimize your chances of seeing a good storm,
don't make targeting decisions based on potential alternative activities (i.e., dinner) that you could indulge in if you don't see storms

4. Chasing is a microcosm of life - the lesson about complacency can be applied to the rest of your life. And there is a life lesson in keeping one's ego in check - don't allow yourself to get too high on success, because you can immediately fall off your high horse. Stay humble!

5. Notwithstanding the above, don't be too hard on yourself. It was in many respects an understandable state of mind to be in, after the magic (and emotional exhaustion) of Dodge City the day before.




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James brought up a good point that I want to second. Getting distracted on 5/25 with the idea of returning home to Tulsa biased my decision to chase the southern target. I didn't even realize how much it was influencing my decision making until I reflected afterwards.

My chase partners and I always debrief after our chases. It's a great practice that helps you assess what you did right and what you did wrong. Doing it shortly after the chase is also a really good way to identify subtleties in your thinking and actions that you wouldn't notice while reflecting days later. Distracting myself with wanting to return to Tulsa screwed my decision for this day. Although overlooking the air mass boundary as I mentioned before also screwed me.

One last thing that I want to point out, and I'm curious if anyone else experienced this, was my negligence in checking the road Network near the Dodge City tornadoes. I didn't realize that there were paved roads off of the main road south of Dodge City. Last season I had a Camry, and I wouldn't take it off road. So we stuck to that main road. As we chased the tornadoes north, they got further and further away from the road as they followed the boundary. It was obviously a great experience and we had an awesome time. However, once I saw all of the footage from chasers (hank, dan robinson, chasertv, basehunters, chaserQ, reed, holcomb, etc, etc) that were on that paved road with the tornados right next to them, I wrote The Chase off as a total failure. I still see missing those tornadoes from a close position as a bigger failure than missing 5/25 entirely. I forget about 5/25 and I really don't beat myself up about it. But missing those beatiful tornadoes on 5/24 from close range is a huge disappointment and something I regret every time I think about it... chase intercept of a lifetime missed with nose bleed seats... it's like I wasn't there.

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[Todd Lemery]

I've got the same regrets as David, although I didn't have those regrets until reading his post. We stayed on 283 the whole time until we got to Dodge City. I didn't know there were paved roads to the West of 283 until now. We were extremely cautious that day because of nearly getting stuck on a clay road and coming to a washed out bridge late at night heading to a hotel after the Turkey storm. We knew it was a one mile grid there, but didn't investigate enough to know about the paved roads. That just took a couple of points off my fun meter!

 

[Eric Hassfurther]

I played west of the main North/South highway on the Dodge City day, but not as far west as the paved road, that Holcomb, Timmer, and Hank were on. Looking at majority of the maps a few days later, I couldn't find a good way to determine which roads were paved and which were not. Do any of y'all have a good/reliable way to do this?


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[David Williams]

I played west of the main North/South highway on the Dodge City day, but not as far west as the paved road, that Holcomb, Timmer, and Hank were on. Looking at majority of the maps a few days later, I couldn't find a good way to determine which roads were paved and which were not. Do any of y'all have a good/reliable way to do this?


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After this day, I realized the advantage of using Google Earth to see if roads are paved. Usually that requires the help of a chase partner, or some quick perusing when the storm gets going.

However, my frustration with "missing" those tornadoes just encouraged me to purchase a 4Runner with 4x4 and locking rear differential so that going off paved roads wouldn't be an issue anymore.

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[JamesCaruso]

Some great points raised by David, Todd and Eric.

David, you expanded on my point by noting that there are often other types of non-meteorological biases that enter into our targeting decisions and we need to be careful of those. I also agree with your point about debriefing, which should be done on successful chases as well as unsuccessful ones. For my chase partner and I, debriefing usually turns into a more unhealthy process of second-guessing and ruminating upon our failures ;-) It was also interesting that you mentioned only later realizing your bias toward the southern target because you were heading home. You said that it's important to debrief right away while things are fresh in your mind, which I agree with, but some things are only going to become apparent days later, after the emotion settles and your subconscious mind has been able to work through the issues. Complacency as a factor in missing Chapman was actually pointed out to me by another chaser, a wise veteran, in a text conversation; he also noted that in my case there was perhaps a subconscious desire to enjoy the "high" of Dodge City a little longer, hence the inclination to focus on a potential nice dinner in Wichita instead of another hard core chase day. But he also noted that this was all normal stuff that he, too, had succumbed to.

As for not getting closer to the Dodge City tornados, yeah, I regretted that too at first. I thought those roads were all dirt, I made one attempt in there and couldn't find a good dry path to stay with the storm. I was worried about chaser traffic and having to backtrack to 283 and make a left turn back onto it. I am also usually inclined to stop and enjoy the tornado rather than be unable to look at it while driving or navigating. The same veteran chaser told me at the time to stop second-guessing myself and that the important thing is that I was there to see it. He also reminded me that this trend of going for the extreme close up is going to kill someone someday; remember that is a relatively recent aspect of chasing. So guys please stop feeling bad about that, especially Todd I feel bad that you would suddenly feel regret now, eight months later - don't tarnish the good memory you have held in your mind since then!

BTW, David it was great to meet you out there this year, especially after we had communicated about your business-related pursuits! Don't get too over-confident with that 4-Runner, it will still be no match for some of those dirt roads when they get wet!






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[David Williams]

Some great points raised by David, Todd and Eric.

David, you expanded on my point by noting that there are often other types of non-meteorological biases that enter into our targeting decisions and we need to be careful of those. I also agree with your point about debriefing, which should be done on successful chases as well as unsuccessful ones. For my chase partner and I, debriefing usually turns into a more unhealthy process of second-guessing and ruminating upon our failures ;-) It was also interesting that you mentioned only later realizing your bias toward the southern target because you were heading home. You said that it's important to debrief right away while things are fresh in your mind, which I agree with, but some things are only going to become apparent days later, after the emotion settles and your subconscious mind has been able to work through the issues. Complacency as a factor in missing Chapman was actually pointed out to me by another chaser, a wise veteran, in a text conversation; he also noted that in my case there was perhaps a subconscious desire to enjoy the "high" of Dodge City a little longer, hence the inclination to focus on a potential nice dinner in Wichita instead of another hard core chase day. But he also noted that this was all normal stuff that he, too, had succumbed to.

As for not getting closer to the Dodge City tornados, yeah, I regretted that too at first. I thought those roads were all dirt, I made one attempt in there and couldn't find a good dry path to stay with the storm. I was worried about chaser traffic and having to backtrack to 283 and make a left turn back onto it. I am also usually inclined to stop and enjoy the tornado rather than be unable to look at it while driving or navigating. The same veteran chaser told me at the time to stop second-guessing myself and that the important thing is that I was there to see it. He also reminded me that this trend of going for the extreme close up is going to kill someone someday; remember that is a relatively recent aspect of chasing. So guys please stop feeling bad about that, especially Todd I feel bad that you would suddenly feel regret now, eight months later - don't tarnish the good memory you have held in your mind since then!

BTW, David it was great to meet you out there this year, especially after we had communicated about your business-related pursuits! Don't get too over-confident with that 4-Runner, it will still be no match for some of those dirt roads when they get wet!






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James,

I agree that debriefing and reflecting should be done over the long term in addition to soon after the chase. In a way, it's what we're doing right now.

Something that I should probably expand on with regard to my earlier statement about debriefing is the need to use or apply the action or thinking solutions that come from the debriefing. To debrief and move on doesn't help much. You need to debrief and find a way of incorporating your conclusions or positive solutions into your future chasing mentality. I tend to think of these as "principles of chasing."

"Principles of chasing" are learned principles that you can rely on when you're second-guessing mind wants to confuse the situation. Some classic examples of chasing principals would be chasing the tail end Charlie storm or chasing the storm that is farther out in front of the boundary or in front of a section of linear storms. Over time, I've tried to develop more "principles of chasing" in order to remove my emotional brain or second-guessing brain that wants to confuse me. This won't always work and it won't always lead to success; however, the idea is that if the principle holds true a majority of the time, following the principal will lead to success a majority of the time.

As you mentioned James, it was great (and oddly coincidental) that we should bump into each other the night before, and moments before, the Dodge City event. I hope we bump into each other again this year. I attached a pic of my 4Runner (aka. Stormtrooper) with partially complete hail shield. So, if you see me out there, please swing by.

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[Todd Lemery]

Thanks James, you are absolutely right about Dodge City. I was happy then, and gosh darn it, I'm gonna be happy about it now. Although it seems like everybody was on that storm, not everybody was and just the thrill of seeing that bugger cycle through the way it did makes me happy to have been there. If every chase day could be that nice, I should never have anything to complain about!