2016 lessons learned

[Todd Lemery]

We all evolve every year to one degree or another. We learn from mistakes and from other chasers from time to time.
The biggest change for me for the 2017 season comes from a chance meeting with Robert Forry and Michael Gavin at the Twistex memorial the day after Dodge City. We had flown down, rented a car and were on our way to the airport to head back. They had driven down from up North (our neck of the woods) and were going to continue chasing. What happened was that if we would have driven home from that spot instead of heading to the airport, we would have made it home about three hours quicker! After the usual airport delay, laying down a bunch of money for plane tickets and a vehicle rental, we would have been way better off just driving home. Another problem with flying is getting all the stuff you want to take with you on the plane. That's why next year we'll be taking my daily driver, a old Chevy Avalanche, down for storm chasing. We're in the process now of getting it set up and I couldn't be happier.
Another thing I vow to do, once again, is to try to stick to paved roads as much as possible. Sometimes a person is just better off driving a little extra distance rather than tempting fate on some of those clay lined ice rinks in the Southern plains. I've never gotten stuck in a ditch, but have seen plenty of others who have. The worse part about it is if you go in a ditch, your chase day is probably done.
I've always declined to get frequent user discount cards for anything. I just don't like having a crap load of cards in my wallet or anywhere else. I'm gonna break down and get one for Holiday Inn though. Holiday Inn Expresses are always the first hotel I search for when looking for a place to stay. I might as well save some money since I'm going to stay there anyway. Love those places.
Last thing. I'm going to get a decent camera. I've always been intimidated by all the buttons, but have someone who knows a little bit about cameras who will show me how to use it. Maybe old dogs can learn new tricks...

 

[Jeff Duda]

Lesson(s) learned in 2016:

1) Just about anything can happen on a given chase day. I'm mainly talking about meteorological evolution, but logistical and personal stuff fits there, too.

The models leading up to a given day can lock onto a given evolution, but that doesn't mean that's how the day will go. Never assume the presence of a trough with moisture is a guarantee of a supercell and/or tornado outbreak. It doesn't take much to screw up an otherwise good looking setup (veer-back on April 26), and a marginal setup can explode into a huge day with one or two nearly imperceptible changes (i.e., mysterious boundary near DDC on May 24). Don't leave home in the morning assuming things are going to go the way the models say it will. Keep your head on a swivel and be ready to change your target at any moment as new data comes in throughout the day.

2) Don't give up just because the day looks to be over. Sometimes the best part of a chase day happens as the daylight is fading, or just flat out after sunset. It may be more dangerous and less satisfying to chase then compared to getting something in the daylight, but usually, getting a nighttime tornado is preferable to getting no tornado at all.

3) Keep an eye on slow moving supercells. They dump a ton of water over a small area in a short time and can cause serious flooding. I neglected to consider the slow moving nature of the Memphis, TX supercell on 22 May and spent way too much time messing around on an isolated road grid that was getting absolutely pounded by rain. I ended up stranded by flood water in the middle of nowhere for a few hours. The terrain wasn't particularly susceptible to flooding issues other than the fact that in very flat areas, even minor dips in the road can be a spot for enough rain to pool up to cause problems, even if it's not flowing. But you still can't force most passenger cars through more than 6-12 inches of standing water. You'll float eventually.

 

[Robert Forry]

Yeah, my biggest from this year was if a system looks good in May, just freaking chase it. I poo pooed my own forecast for May 7-10 citing a "lack of moisture" being present. Watched it on the GFS for a little over a week out, then on Friday the 6th uncommitted from making the 20 hr plus drive to CO. Hum - cost me seeing Wray on Saturday, then the tornadoes on Monday in Sulphur/Wynnewood/Katie. Just chase Rob!!! Slightly made up for it on the 21st with the Leoti storm (which seems no one was talking about in advance), but that wasn't really a make up.

My other was the day after the DDC tornadopallozafest and not seeing the interaction of the leftover outflow boundaries and a triple point up near I-70/I-35. Still haven't quite broke that day down (maybe someone can enlighten me). We ended up chasing further down the dryline and got snookered.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

I learned that when you have high level shear funnels like this shortly after the storm goes up, you are in for a great day. 5-9-2016 west of Davis, OK on SH 7

View attachment 1f48322f395815cedc6a11eb09b99b75.jpg

 

[Ethan Schisler]

2016 taught me to take more chances on marginal setups than I usually do. Living in Northern Illinois, I have about a 8-10+ hour drive to get anywhere in the plains along the dry-line, sometimes more than that. So a setup has to look good the night before, for me to give it a chance to drive down. Especially only having the funds for a few trips a year. This year I ended up passing on 2 periods that I regret (May 7-9 & May 21-25), and then the days that I chased that looked synoptically evident, ended up falling flat (namely 4/26 & 5/26). However with money being an issue, I have to pick and choose my days wisely. 2017 is a new year and with that will come new challenges. And even though this year those periods fell flat for me, I still managed to nab several tornadoes from some local days and even one plains day (4/29/16), so not a total dud of a year, even though I didn't get the best from it.

....Oh and even when you think a chase day is over with, you still need to keep an eye out on the storm that is near you for possible tornadoes, especially after dark, when the shear/instability parameters still support such (6/22/16). Had a close-call with a night-time tornado outside of Ottawa, IL....

 

[Michael Towers]

2016 taught me to take more chances on marginal setups than I usually do. Living in Northern Illinois, I have about a 8-10+ hour drive to get anywhere in the plains along the dry-line, sometimes more than that. So a setup has to look good the night before, for me to give it a chance to drive down. Especially only having the funds for a few trips a year. This year I ended up passing on 2 periods that I regret (May 7-9...

Distance, time constraints and economic considerations are almost always factors when I'm considering whether to chase. It's not unusual for me to miss an event simply because it doesn't appear to be worth the time and money. Missing stuff like that is inevitable and doesn’t bother me, it happens, so be it. But missing an event due to what ultimately amounts to heading home prematurely is something different altogether and harder to shrug off. I made that May 7 trip that you referenced only I left OKC on the morning of the 9th to come home because the setup didn’t seem worthy of sticking around and missing another day of business. I did the same on 5-20-13, I liked the environmental component but not the area so I headed home to salvage some business. I tell myself I didn’t miss anything because as a rule I don’t chase metro areas but without ever actually chasing I’ll never really know. As for the 9th the same holds true, I can’t say for sure I’d have even been on the Wynnewood tornado but at least I’d have had a chance. So, to bring this around to the question asked in the OP I’d say my biggest lesson learned from 2016 is that if you’re already out on a trip and even only a marginal nearby setup presents itself take the extra day if you can and give it a chance. I don’t mind missing amazing events that materialize in a marginal environment many miles away (e.g. Campo) but I never want to miss a chance at a Wynnewood or Moore again if I have the time and I’m already out in the area.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I made the trip to the Plains to chase the 8th, but also went home on the 9th. The 9th was really a sleeper that didn't become evident until mid-morning, by which time us long-distancers had already been forced to make our go-no-go decisions to head home. Like many of us, I have rehashed that day, yet I can't see a realistic scenario of me picking up on the potential early enough to know to blast south (I awoke in Salina that day). And if I did try it, I likely would have settled on the dryline farther north (meaning I might have seen the Stillwater tornado, definitely not Wynnewood/Katie).

That being said, Tim Marshall's pearl of wisdom "when it's May, you chase" has rung true for me time and time again. When there is a dryline, deep moisture, and ANY puff of upper support, things simply happen out there. That would be my takeaway lesson from 2016 - don't agonize over a setup in May: if there is a dryline and deep moisture, just chase the darn thing. Especially if I'm already out there!

 

[Ethan Schisler]

I've also realized the longer I've chased the less missing tornadoes hurt. While yeah I bet everyone on this forum would love to see every big tornado event out there and we all hate missing the big ones too, but looking back on our past successes certainly helps in these scenarios. Not saying it doesn't hurt a little (Missing Dodge City hurt lol), it certainly hurts less the longer you chase and the more successes you've got to look back on. And then again, its physically impossible to be everywhere at once, so until they invent time travel or a warp machine, we will just have to live with that lol

 

[Drew Terril]

I think for me this year, it was more encouragement than lessons learned. I knew my opportunities would be limited as I got laid off in Feb and started CDL training at the end of March. So I missed the bulk of the season. But what I did chase, I was able to put together the intellectual side of forecasting (something I was seriously lacking in the past) and put myself in very good positions. There was some luck involved; late Feb in NC I happened to be visiting my mom and was actually driving there that day. I'd been looking at it for a couple of days though and targeted Fayetteville (and I made my intercept about 20 miles east of there).

Echoing the same theme of what Dan said about chasing in May, March 15th in Illinois was one of those "might as well" days because I knew it was likely to be my last chance before I left for my training.

After those two days, I gained a lot more confidence. Did missing the big events hurt? Sure. The worst was missing the Owasso storm that passed less than 3 miles from the farm not even 96 hours after I'd left the state. But I had a lot of positives to take away for myself.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Stormtrack mobile app

 

[Marc R. O'Leary]

Hopefully I've learned to stop second guessing myself. I missed Wray because I decided at the last second to go after structure closer to me. It paid out photographically, but then I saw the videos. D'oh. Second guessing comes with patience that I tend to lack as well.

 

[Chad M]

I am still new to chasing, but the biggest lessons from this past year that I learned are...

On the way home, slow it down some if there is heavy rain. Traveling fast in those conditions is not worth the risk of hydroplaning and wrecking. Better safe than sorry.

Don't skip any setups in late May. Dodge City might happen if you do.

 

[Devin Pitts]

I made the mistake of disregarding the warm front on 5/25/16 In Kansas and got trolled by an LP that fizzled. Granted I still got a nocturnal tornado near Enid that day, but still frustrated that I made a mistake like that.

 

[Tim Paitz]

Enhanced risks are better than moderate risks and don't chase on the 26th (banter by the way).

 

[Michael Snyder]

#1-I'll chime in by reinforcing the saying "when it's May, you chase". Especially when you've got deep moisture and a dryline and Marginal shear as with the May 21-25 setups.
#2-Find those boundaries during your chase! We could see the boundary on May 24th and even though I had a buddy telling me to get south on the next cell I never left and it paid off. If nothing else at least you did your own forecasting and you are either rewarded by it or will learn from your decisions and not someone else's!
#3-NEVER give up on a chase day. Not even when the next day is "going to be huge bro!!" We were down by Wichita on May 25th about 80 miles from the Chapman storm and blasted off after it, we got to it while you could see the tornado, and before it was a full fury beast! My point here is that MANY(you know who you guys are) people called off that chase after the turkey tower went up east of Wichita in the afternoon.
#4-You can make a chase day better by setting goals. What do you want to see? Structure? Gorgeous colors? Tornadoes? Make a plan and make it happen.
#5- Learn how to use a good camera, get lightroom and magic will happen! Its the best investment you can make when storm chasing. think about it, you are going out there and potentially risking your life, somake it worth your while! When you bust, shoot some cool outflow clouds with a barn in the foreground. OR-Shoot structure from way back if you don't like the setup or if you are too far away. But always: Find an angle and never stop chasing!

 

[James Wilson]

I learned COLORADO is still the best place to see the most amazing tornadoes! (Wray)
I learned triplets happen! (Dodge City)
I learned tornadoes sometimes back up turn and then chase you. (Turkey TX)
I learned large hail leaves your ears ringing for a long time. (Salina)
I learned you can beat a SE moving night tornado into town while driving South ... barely. (Eureka)
I learned you can see 29 tornadoes in a year and no one can get killed. :knockingonwood:
I learned I am still learning ...........