Royce Sheibal
EF3
Listen here you slack-jawed maggots. Chasing on a day like Saturday will turn you into a meteorological tyrannosaurus.
NAM, GFS, and even the SPC SREF are all going nuts for tomorrow from about 21Z until 06Z. As Jeff correctly pointed out, all of them seem to be producing a strong meso-low ahead of the trough overnight, which pushes into the target area and has a trailing warm front / wind shift to the southeast.
We've got plenty of CAPE as long as crapvection clears, 0-3 SRH is in the stupid zone, with 400+ across the target and 700+??? overnight once the LLJ kicks in. LCL's look good, Td's are good, 500-250 winds are WAY above normal, but it's highly contingent on the amplification of the trough overnight. There is a little vort-max over the area as well. NAM 4km, my baby from 2014, doesn't agree totally. It puts the complex over Nebraska all day long, which cuts off the return flow and ruins the day for everyone until after dark, at which point the LLJ turns central NE into night of the twisters again.
So what do we do? I'm going to wait until 06/12Z NAM before i decide if I'm going tomorrow, but I'll likely find myself in NE Neb somewhere around Norfolk, hoping for discrete cells forming along the intersection of the LLJ and surface boundary. As for the rest of you, target the Spencer / Aberdeen / Pierre Triangle and I think you'll be fine. This area has consistently been the best area for sig-tor ingredients run to run for a while now.
My target: Norfolk, NE up to Yankton, SD. Better spot but too far: Pierre to Aberdeen, SD moving SE overnight.
P.S.: If I'm really lucky, the surface front will stall over Omaha way far out from the low where 10m winds will be near 30mph. This setup reminds me a lot of a training sig-tor setup back in 1995 during the middle of the summer. Took out the high school in bennington if i recall correctly. Also, was the best lightning show I've ever seen, so even if the TOR's fail, this could be one of the best lightning shows in years.
NAM, GFS, and even the SPC SREF are all going nuts for tomorrow from about 21Z until 06Z. As Jeff correctly pointed out, all of them seem to be producing a strong meso-low ahead of the trough overnight, which pushes into the target area and has a trailing warm front / wind shift to the southeast.
We've got plenty of CAPE as long as crapvection clears, 0-3 SRH is in the stupid zone, with 400+ across the target and 700+??? overnight once the LLJ kicks in. LCL's look good, Td's are good, 500-250 winds are WAY above normal, but it's highly contingent on the amplification of the trough overnight. There is a little vort-max over the area as well. NAM 4km, my baby from 2014, doesn't agree totally. It puts the complex over Nebraska all day long, which cuts off the return flow and ruins the day for everyone until after dark, at which point the LLJ turns central NE into night of the twisters again.
So what do we do? I'm going to wait until 06/12Z NAM before i decide if I'm going tomorrow, but I'll likely find myself in NE Neb somewhere around Norfolk, hoping for discrete cells forming along the intersection of the LLJ and surface boundary. As for the rest of you, target the Spencer / Aberdeen / Pierre Triangle and I think you'll be fine. This area has consistently been the best area for sig-tor ingredients run to run for a while now.
My target: Norfolk, NE up to Yankton, SD. Better spot but too far: Pierre to Aberdeen, SD moving SE overnight.
P.S.: If I'm really lucky, the surface front will stall over Omaha way far out from the low where 10m winds will be near 30mph. This setup reminds me a lot of a training sig-tor setup back in 1995 during the middle of the summer. Took out the high school in bennington if i recall correctly. Also, was the best lightning show I've ever seen, so even if the TOR's fail, this could be one of the best lightning shows in years.
