Jeff House
Supporter
Colorado is my main focus, but this afternoon should be active from Montana to New Mexico. With 10 hours of daylight to go, and the MCS finally weakening, I believe Colorado will recover in time.
Palmer Divide and the north side of Raton Mesa both look like good targets, but I favor the more southern Raton Mesa today. First though, I do believe the atmo will recover enough to give Palmer a chance. Low level winds will be backed and the LLJ should strengthen just a bit late today. Upper level winds strengthen as a short-wave comes out late afternoon.
Raton Mesa, specifically the north side, offers another nice topographic target today. My scale tips toward Raton Mesa because a lifting outflow boundary OFB should be in the area. I like to stack odds in my favor, both topography and outflow. While the main OFB is buried in West Texas, a more subtle boundary sits in the OK Panhandle as of 17Z. It is forecast to lift north into southeast Colorado. Instability should be higher in southeast Colorado compared to northeast, and the cap is breakable in southeast Colorado.
With a short-wave coming out at a good time, perhaps both targets yield tubes. Be safe and good luck!
Palmer Divide and the north side of Raton Mesa both look like good targets, but I favor the more southern Raton Mesa today. First though, I do believe the atmo will recover enough to give Palmer a chance. Low level winds will be backed and the LLJ should strengthen just a bit late today. Upper level winds strengthen as a short-wave comes out late afternoon.
Raton Mesa, specifically the north side, offers another nice topographic target today. My scale tips toward Raton Mesa because a lifting outflow boundary OFB should be in the area. I like to stack odds in my favor, both topography and outflow. While the main OFB is buried in West Texas, a more subtle boundary sits in the OK Panhandle as of 17Z. It is forecast to lift north into southeast Colorado. Instability should be higher in southeast Colorado compared to northeast, and the cap is breakable in southeast Colorado.
With a short-wave coming out at a good time, perhaps both targets yield tubes. Be safe and good luck!