2016-06-13 EVENT: CO/MT/WY/SD/NE/KS/OK/TX

[Jeff House]

Colorado is my main focus, but this afternoon should be active from Montana to New Mexico. With 10 hours of daylight to go, and the MCS finally weakening, I believe Colorado will recover in time.

Palmer Divide and the north side of Raton Mesa both look like good targets, but I favor the more southern Raton Mesa today. First though, I do believe the atmo will recover enough to give Palmer a chance. Low level winds will be backed and the LLJ should strengthen just a bit late today. Upper level winds strengthen as a short-wave comes out late afternoon.

Raton Mesa, specifically the north side, offers another nice topographic target today. My scale tips toward Raton Mesa because a lifting outflow boundary OFB should be in the area. I like to stack odds in my favor, both topography and outflow. While the main OFB is buried in West Texas, a more subtle boundary sits in the OK Panhandle as of 17Z. It is forecast to lift north into southeast Colorado. Instability should be higher in southeast Colorado compared to northeast, and the cap is breakable in southeast Colorado.

With a short-wave coming out at a good time, perhaps both targets yield tubes. Be safe and good luck!

 

[Robert S. Thompson]

All this early precip and thick cloudiness east of Denver makes your choice of a target look pretty good. We are probably going to push farther south than originally planned.

 

[Jeff House]

Colorado is my main focus, but this afternoon should be active from Montana to New Mexico...
...Raton Mesa, specifically the north side, offers another nice topographic target today. My scale tips toward Raton Mesa [vs Palmer Divide] because a lifting outflow boundary OFB should be in the area. I like to stack odds in my favor, both topography and outflow. While the main OFB is buried in West Texas, a more subtle boundary sits in the OK Panhandle as of 17Z...

Congratulations to all who documented tornadoes Monday. I was watching from Tennessee on Twitter. Glad the Raton Mesa target worked out for at least one cycle.

I should have talked more about the main OFB in West Texas. Looks like some got Texas Panhandle tornado(es) as the OFB lifted north of AMA. Low level and deep level shear were plenty adequate, so it should not be a surprise. Don't ignore the main outflow boundary, especially if upper levels are adequate.

Again, congratulations to all who documented tornadoes and/or other good stuff.