2015 post mortem

Twenty-fifteen was an interesting year for me. A lot of turnover and changes impacted my life, but one thing remained constant….. my love and desire to experience Mother Nature’s best and worst weather. At the beginning of the year I was approached by an individual employed by the National Weather Service Chicago, he offered me a unique opportunity to help out and further enhance my weather skills/knowledge by allowing me to join their social media team. I was also encouraged to apply for NOAA’s Weather Ready Nation Ambassador title with my work on my personal social media page. It was a unique opportunity because most WRN Ambassadors were part of a larger group and not individuals. He pushed me to apply for the position and I had the idea to make our business “Illinois Storm Chasers LLC” designated with that title instead of just “Danny Neal – Northern Illinois Storm Chaser.” This allowed me the flexibility to bring in whomever I wanted to teach and have the resources available to them that I have. My business and storm chase partner Adam Lucio was the first person I approached since it’s our business and I wanted his insight on the designation. He, of course, was all for it! Mid way through March, we received our WRN designation and were endorsed by the NWS as a credible and reliable source of information. To me that was huge. My page and my passion for weather has always been aimed toward public safety. Don’t get me wrong, I go out there and chase for me and my own selfish reasons; but I also make sure I can warn in whatever way that I can. So having that bit of credibility from the “major league” club was a huge pat on the back and step in the right direction. Some people have said and will say that WRN is not an “individual” or “official” position within the weather service. I agree. It is a volunteer position that gives me more experience than a paycheck ever could. To those that want to stir the pot and say I act like an official NOAA employee, I say worry about your own miserable life and try to regain some sort of intergrity to do your job without bringing others down around you. I am all about high morale and encouragement, this is why I have no patience or tolerence for belitting people or haters from another state that need several other people to do the job that I do alone.

If I really wanted to get involved with the HAM/SM team, I would have to give up a lot of local chasing events. If I were a new chaser or someone that really didn’t have a lot of success out in field; I would probably have balked on the opportunity and tried to be out in the field as much as I could. My only priority for 2015 was getting out there and seeing a tornado. I have witnessed a tornado every year since 2007 and didn’t want that streak to end. My goal was to spend every local event at the office while using the plains events as an excuse to get out there away from local responsiblities. My professional page carries a certain responsiblity. It wasn’t by design or intention, but it rapidly evolved into a go to source for weather information. The way my page works is that I use blended information from the NWS, NOAA, and myself to make forecasts, give warnings, and other safety information. All of my forecasts come from me, but I will definitely share the message of the National Weather Service by redistributing their warnings, graphics, and information any chance I can get.

2015 started off slow in terms of severe weather both locally and nationally. It wasn’t until April 9th that our local area was threatened by significant severe weather. It was my first opportunity to volunteer at the NWS and to get my feet wet with how the office works during a severe weather day. It was QUITE an experience to say the least. I won’t get into too many details as I am sure there is some confidentiality issues, but I was very impressed with the men and women that quarterbacked the event. As it turned out, an EF-4 tornado touched down in our western CWA and killed two people. It was the strongest tornado in history to hit that particular area and the first violent tornado to impact the Chicago CWA since the Plainfield F5 of 1990. The tornado itself was highly visible and magnificent looking as evidenced by the hundreds of stunning still and video of the event. I am sure there will be a day that I regret not chasing that day, but I think the experience I received at LOT that day will help me in the future. No regrets.

My first storm chase was plotted to occur during the first week of May. A very strong storm system was progged to eject out into typical tornado alley during the May 7th-10th time frame. After missing a record breaking tornado close to home, my itch to return to the plains was growing. This system looked like a slam dunk to produce multiple tornadoes across the plains and I didn’t want to miss it. We set off for the plains and planned on chasing the 8th, 9th, and possibly the 10th. The 9th was the “big day” but each of the other days had their perks as well.

May 8th: We traveled down to Ben Holcomb’s house in Norman, OK and set up shop. Numerous supercells develped throughout the day and were hammering the Red River Valley. We intercepted a storm near Grandview, Oklahoma just as it produced a brief, but large tornado. We were not able to see the tornado due to the storm’s HP nature. We cat and moused the storm all the way to Waurika. The storm exhibited amazing striated structure with a dark green core. From time to time it would go tornado warned and we would position ourselves to get the best shot of any tornado. We gave up in Waurika and decided to let the storm overtake us and try to get some wind driven hail. The storm was severe warned for 70 MPH winds and baseball sized hail. That would be a nice consolation prize! It just so happened that as we positioned ourselves in a car wash on the outskirts of town that the storm was reintensify and go tornado warned. A strong couplet formed nearly overhead and we watched in awe as a strongly rotating wall cloud passed perilously close to our location. Vorticies danced in the rain as sirens wailed. We couldn’t see the ground due to buildings and trees, but there was a point in time where we did see a long snaky vortex extend down toward the ground. There was a video that showed some power flashes in our area as well. I counted it as a weak tornado. No official survey has been done on it, but based on the evidence I witnessed I believe at least some ground contact occurred. We filmed a beautiful sunset with storm moving off and then headed back into the OKC metro in anticipation for the major outbreak 24 hours from now.

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May 9th: To our horror, our set up was contaminated by previous convection across the panhandles. What once looked like a Western Oklahoma/Kansas set up now looked to be Northeast Colorado or Central Texas. We didn’t necessarily want to drive all the way down into Texas because we had our sights set on a set up on the 10th across NE/IA. As it turned out we meandered our way into Western Kansas with hopes of airmass recovery. Instability was building, but there wasn’t enough to over come the insane amount of wind shear. Every single tower that went up was ripped apart and rendered useless. Storms did get under way across Colorado and we hesistated whether we wanted to drive that far west. Unfortunately we pulled the trigger way too late. An amazing localized tornado outbreak was underway across the region and we were just too far away to get any good images. We did see an amazing tornado from over 40 miles away. Hands down one of the best areas to view a tornado from. You can see forever out there and we managed to view a rather large tornado from nearly 50 miles away! We made it to the storm from an hour away just as it crossed the cold side of the boundary and died. Our temperatures dropped from the 70’s into the 30’s and ice pellets started to fall from the sky. It was disgusting! We battled slow traffic and terrible roads for another 45 minutes until we noticed a storm developing another hour to our east. It was nearing sunset and we were snake bitten and needed to salvage the day. We flew east on I 70 and managed to intercept a supercell that went on to drop 7 tornadoes right at dusk. It wasn’t ideal, but we managed to score a consolation prize.

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June 15th: Wasn’t actually a storm chase by design. I set off on a trip with my girlfriend to surprise her for her birthday. I teamed up with her mom, sister, and cousin to fly in her best friend from Houston and surprise her with a few days to get away from it all and fish and camp down at Lake Shelbyville. We left the 14th and came home late afternoon the 15th. Storm were predicted each of those days so I brought my camera gear with me and the rest of my chasing supplies. As we were coming home storms were developing all over, but were not expected to become severe. In fact, a heavy rain threat would be lead to flooding over a large portion of the area. We stopped off a local store to grab some supplies for dinner just as a tornado warning was issued for the city of Chicago. I was completely shocked by this and couldn’t believe the hooking supercell that was moving across the southside. This storm actually produced a waterspout just off the Chicago shoreline. We drove back to Peotone and began dinner when a new tornado warning was issued for Will County. Right where I was…. I ran outside and hopped in the car and drove a mile to I 57 where we witnessed a small rope tornado off in the distance. It quickly dissipated and the storm fell apart. A great way to cap off a wonderful weekend!

August 18th: Full account found here: http://chicagostormchaser.com/20150818/

Totals:

Miles: 3,500

Tornadoes: 9

Hail: .75″

Winds: 75 MPH

States: IL, MO, NE, IA, KS, TX, OK, CO

Firsts: Colorado tornado
 
A beginning year for me. My third year being able to chase, and my most successful so far.
Stats so far:

Chase Days: 8
Tornadoes: 2
Largest Hail: 4.25 Inches (6/10 Minooka, IL)
Winds: 70 MPH
States: IA, IL, MO, OK, TX
Best Days:
7/13 (LaSalle Supercell and incredible shelf cloud on the morning MCS)
8/18 (Pontiac, IL tornado, NWS LOT/Romeoville, IL Supercell and large wall cloud)
6/10 (Record large hail in Minooka, IL)

My Goals for next year will be to get more days to chase in general. I just didn't quite have the funds or the time this year due to work and family. I was also far more successful in IL given that I know this state really well. I busted both times I went far enough out to chase, but given the active year in my neck of the woods, it has given me plenty of homegrown chances; some right on my back door. Overall, I just want to get more experience and get more days to chase, which takes lots of time and money. Hopefully I can find myself out in the field more next season. I am happy with the outcomes of all the days I did go out, I learned a whole lot, and I wouldn't change a thing except my incorrect decision on 4/9... but you win some and lose some.
 
Anyone else with thoughts on the year?

(1) I'm sick of this years-long drought of less-than-average-for-what-my-body-of-work-has-always-been results.
(2) I'm sick of chase days where there's already storms in my target when I wake up.
(3) I'm sick of storm modes that force me to either (a) take serious risks to life and limb to be able to view tornadoes, (b) take serious risks to potentially-catastrophic vehicle damage because I don't drive a tank and cannot afford to replace glass next-day, and (3) ruin outside, static, tripoded tornado sequences because of rain, storm speeds, and crap roads.
(4) I'm sick of worrying about whether or not we'll suffer a terminal breakdown in BFE because I'm always driving a 12-year-old car.
(5) I'm sick of wondering if I just got lucky for 15 years.
(6) I'm sick of being a good loser.
(7) I'm sick of stats, because the two tornadoes I get to add to my count this year were shit on video, so it's the same as if I never even saw them.
(8) I'm sick of pop-up tour companies
(9) I'm sick of live streams, brands, and average video people call "extreme" to get views/hits/likes
(10) I'm ready to get back to being awesome, because I really suck at being average
 
2015 was an average to below average year for me. In the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, is was a quiet year compared to the last 4-5. Minnesota was very quiet with no big days except for an early EF-0-fest in Western Minnesota. June was below average. I spent two weeks wandering around South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Montana and while we saw some great storms and a couple beasts after dark, it was a lite year for tornadoes for me personally.

I worry about what may be coming with the fatality accident here in Minnesota back in mid-July... We'll only truly know the outcome after all the legal work is done but knowing several people in the area it happened, the community there won't soon forget.

Not having a video camera has been liberating. I only have a dash cam for streaming, which made me some actual money this year, and my still camera. My stills have gotten so much better now that I don't worry about video.

I was a lot better this year at arriving in my target area on time. In the past I've had too many days of getting there late. I really enjoyed having some time to just take it easy in the target area and either chat with other chasers, chat with locals, and just generally not be stressing out about being late.

Chasers need to get better at an ensemble approach to looking at model data. The operational HRRR did horrible this summer in my opinion. Thankfully there are so many other options in the Upper Midwest!

I'm hoping to finish editing my pictures from this summer by next spring! I need to get better at that. I've realized I actually do have some good stuff in my catalog and I need to be better about sharing it.

I enjoyed not chasing in Texas and Oklahoma. In that I succeeded in my goal of never chasing there again. Mission accomplished... For 2015 at least!

I made it through 2015 without any 'big days'. But, I still had a blast and look forward to 2016 and spending time on the plains!
 
Being from the Philadelphia area, my chasing is limited to an annual trip to the Plains lasting two weeks or so. In the past few years, I have had some flexibility in timing; I would be able to delay my trip by up to a week so that I could at least start it during a favorable pattern. But this year, due to both personal and professional commitments, I was locked in for the period May 18 to May 30.

I have not seen a tornado since 2012, and that was the Lacrosse KS tornado, which first touched down in near-darkness. It was my third bad year in a row. 2013 had a great stretch during the two weeks I was out, but a comedy of errors cost me every tornado opportunity (see the chaser "Wall of Shame" thread for the sordid details). As we all know, both 2014 and 2015 were relatively slim pickings.

But I still blame myself for a couple of epic failures in 2015. One was missing the Canadian tornado on May 27. I targeted southwestern KS. On the way there, we passed right through the northeastern TX panhandle. Yes, I did notice how the sky looked, and how the air felt, and I liked the obs - if I remember correctly, Canadian (or thereabouts) had a 66 dewpoint. But it was early, and I saw no reason why my target area wouldn't produce, so I stuck with it and continued on into KS. We ended up staying way too long with a small supercell that never quite got going... When we finally bailed on it, we dashed to the northwest and got to the wall cloud of a great supercell and stood in its inflow for a whole 60 seconds until it literally vaporized before our eyes... Then made it to another merry-go-around wall cloud in Sublette that just couldn't get it done in the worked over, 60-degree air... (See chase report for the day, for more details).

The second epic failure was on the last available chase day, May 29, as we headed north through New Mexico toward Denver for our flights home the next day. We stopped to enjoy the pleasant surprise of an isolated supercell ahead of the messy storms in northeastern NM. We watched it for awhile, until it appeared to gust out and become absorbed in the approaching line behind it. We didn't bother to stay in position and allowed it to pass us by as we sat in the torrential rain and witnessed a beautiful rainbow - only to find out about the Campo-like Dora tornado!!!!

Man, that made me want to hang it up for good. How could I still make such stupid mistakes after 18 years?!?

FWIW, I did get to see a supercell near my office in late June... It was small and nothing at all by Plains standards, but to actually see an isolated supercell with some structure in this area was unique and it was cool to do an impromptu storm chase from the office, out and back in an hour, just in time for a meeting :)

Jim
 
Chases: 3
Miles: 365
States: 1 (IL)
Tornadoes: 7
Tornado Days: 3
Strongest Tornado: EF-4
Tornadoes By State: IL: 7
Strongest Wind: 40MPH+
Largest Hail: 1.00"
Days I Should Have Chased, But Couldn't Or Chose Not To: None

Milestones/Firsts...
-None
 
Took this last year off to take care of some financial and personal stuff in my life and while I missed chasing in the Plains, I'm grateful that things are once again getting back on track. And believe it or not, it was pretty awesome to experience the success of others from their chases this year. Proud of my friends who scored the TORs they did. Had multiple forecast wins and learned a great deal from reading and then watching @Rich Thompson's Tornado Forecasting Class. 2016 offers a lot of promise and I'm looking forward to getting back out there with you noobs..
 
No tornadoes or stats for that matter, just a few remarkable experiences on what has for personal reasons has been the most challenging year of living. Thought this would be the season I finally get away from this sad place for a western setup but nope. Priorities are so far askew from chasing that I'm happy with whatever I get for which 2015 was full of file under 'miscellaneous'.

April 2nd, S IL bust yet netted a Spring Peeper frog which I've heard since childhood but never saw till this point.
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April 25th, another disappointment in S IL for not being able to get in front of that which Jesse and crew were able but did bump into Ethan and Chris Kincaid which was cool. Wish to have made more acquaintance by now, oh well.
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May 9th, S IN 'bust' for targeting an MCV potential sleeper but giving up with sunset only to have it pop after I bailed. Poor man's caviar just to come home with something from this day.
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I was worried I would even have a chase season after I made the decision back in February to move to Norman, but 2015 will go down as my best year so far in chasing. I had what you can call a "career year" with the amount of tornadoes I got to see (all of them in my new home state). My best chase day of the year occurred on May 6th eight days after moving to Norman; I saw 8 tornadoes that day including Bridge Creek and the tornado that went through the northern part of Norman. I also got to see a few tornadoes not a lot of other chasers got to witness most notably the one that occurred around Elk City on May 9th and an EF1 tornado that went through the Wichita Mountains Wildlife Refuge near Meers on May 16th.

My stats for the year:

Chase Days: 11
Tornadoes: 11
Strongest Tornado Observed: EF3 (Bridge Creek, OK on May 6th)
Tornado Days: 3 (May 6, May 9, May 16)
States: TN, KY, IL, OK, TX
 
Pretty sure I have chased for the last time in 2015. Here are my results.

Chases: 14
Tornadoes: 15
Tornado days: 5
Miles chased: 6295
States chased: only Oklahoma and Texas. *FACT* I never chased north of 36.6 deg. N lat this year (about the latitude of the southern border between the OK panhandle and Texas); see chase domain below.
Best chase: May 6 or May 27

Highlights: Broke a nearly two-year-long tornadoless streak on May 6, which also was my first tornado day on a solo chase. Not only that, but at one point I scored tornadoes on four consecutive solo chases. Also, my only tornado days were solo chases (5 of 7). My best image of the season comes from a non-tornado day, and thus does not include a tornado. Go figure.

Chase domain by county, shaded by the number of times I went through (yes there are odd gaps in SW OK, TX PH and NC TX where I did not travel):
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Individual chase accounts (all in Stormtrack REPORTS threads) (links in bold represent tornado days)
Also caught this little guy about 10 miles from home (not the only tornado this year that close to my residence) on a day I didn't plan to chase. This was also the day some major rainfall records were officially broken across much of Oklahoma.
 
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CHASES: 23
TORNADOES: 16
TORNADO DAYS: 8 (April 2, April 16, May 6, May 8, May 16, May 24, May 27, June 5)

All of the above are record highs in my ten years of chasing, I believe.

QUALITY TORNADOES*: 6
QUALITY TORNADO DAYS: 4 (April 16, May 16, May 27, June 5)
STATES CHASED: TX, OK, KS, CO, NE

*Daytime, clearly visible, not rain-wrapped. The Bridge Creek EF3 on May 6 doesn't count for me because of the latter, while the Plains/Dodge City nocturnal fognado-fest on May 24 also falls short.

What a wonderfully strange year, pattern-wise. I totally get why some people would despise 2015. If I had a full-time job with limited PTO and had to pick my chase days very sparingly, it would've been excruciating. In fact, I have some friends for whom that's true -- in some cases, they barely chased at all, because so few days looked really enticing the morning of. It was absolutely a year to play constantly so you could win every now and again.

On the other extreme you had me chasing 10 days in May alone, which is fairly insane and somewhat regrettable in hindsight. I mean, a few of the days paid off big, and one (Canadian) didn't necessarily look discernibly better at 8am the day of than the plethora of other time-wasting setups that month. But still.

I never knew just how torturous and occasionally frightening driving through flooding rains for hours on end could be until this year's setups along the Red River. Coming off four straight years of southern Plains drought, it's amazing how quickly my attitude changed. I saw tornadoes on enough chase days that I never got down in the dumps about my "luck," yet some of those stretches of MCS-drenched setups in May wore me down to the point that I still just wanted a break, even in the middle of peak season.

Overall, I think I'll always look back fondly on 2015, but I'm not sure I want to see a year that's meteorologically similar for a long while. In addition to the white-knuckle driving that repeatedly made me question why I wait all year to do this, the number of "perfect" troughs seemingly capable of top-of-the-decade chase days, yet largely squandered by early-day convection, was almost nauseating to watch.

Oh, and I should add a MILESTONE: I've now seen and photographed a clearly-visible tornado every year for the past 10 calendar years (2006-2015). I've never been a highly-successful chaser in terms of tornadoes:chases ratio, and I was downright abysmal for some of those years, so it amazes me to think about that stat.
 
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CHASES: 12
MILES: 4,172
AVERAGE CHASE DISTANCE: 348 miles
TORNADO DAYS: 3
TORNADOES: 3
(Tipton, OK - May 16)
(Mineral Wells, TX - May 19)
(Fort Worth, TX - November 5)
SUCCESS RATIO: 1 in 4.0
STATES CHASED: KS,OK,TX

Lots of tornadic supercells, so many we got sick of them. Very few tornadoes. I have a style that allows me to lay back, get out of the vehicle, set up a tripod, and actually get to sit and enjoy the tornado, while documenting the entire lifecycle and any possible hand offs. Not this year. This year was full of dangerous approaches and nerve-racking intercepts, mostly only to fail seeing the damn tornado because of rain, getting there too late, or having our backs turned for a minute or two repositioning. Highlights included ending the year with three consecutive chases with tornadoes, and getting our first November tornado.
 
Figured I'd revive this thread since we now finally appear to be done for the year (barring anything in the jungles which may be a possibility in a week or so). What a strange year. A nocturnal High Plains event in mid-November is just ridiculous and we probably won't see a repeat of something like that out that way for quite some time.
 
If a few years ago someone had told me that my first siggy tor of 2015 would be on May 27 I would assume it wouldn't be a very good year. However, in the last 6 or 7 years I have become adamant that June is a WAY better month for chasing than May. The Canadian event was epic, of course, and in and of itself made it a good year. Little did I know that Canadian would practically be forgotten after June 4. I will never forget that the 20 minute drive back to Limon was spent laughing uncontrollably.

Not only did I see more tornadoes this year than any prior year, after the November Liberal-to-Dodge tornado it occurred to me that I spent over 3 HOURS, cumulative, observing tornadoes in 2015. Mind blowing.
 
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