2015-03-29 EVENT: TX

[Randy Jennings]

I started to post this morning, but thought there is no way the strong cap would go today. I'm now starting to think it just might break. Looking at the 21Z RAP for today, it looks like CIN could drop to breakable levels in north TX between 6 and 8 PM CDT. RAP shows CAPE between 750 and 1500 during the same time frame and LI as high as -8. With Td as high as 65 and T in the low 80s.Shear looks to be around 40 kts. With a low near Abilene and a cold front stretched out towards the Red River and a dry line to the south, we should have some lift. Satellite shows clouds trying to build along the front. Here just north of Dallas, you can see small AltoCu form and dissipate, then come back bigger, but you have to look hard, as the skies are almost totally clear. My guess is a couple of small supercells with some hail. My target at this point is Denton TX at 7 PM. Since this is in my own back yard, I'm going to wait it out at home and see what happens and head out just in time.

 

[James Hyde]

Been watching it most of the day... Kind of like a dry line set-up, very strong lapse rates throughout the whole column. Got a nice CU field along the CF boundary now, shouldn't take tooo much to make it pop now.

 

[Randy Jennings]

CAP 1 Me 0, moisture too low also.