chrisbray
EF4
I'm seeing a decent chase opportunity coming up on Monday, especially given the time of the year. Lots of unpredictability remains but it look to be right in my backyard so I doubt I will be passing this one up.
GFS and NAM have some major differences per the 18z runs today, but overall I see enough qualities to get me excited. A very seasonably strong upper trough looks to make its way across the upper MS valley on Monday with a closed low hanging over Canada. I'm seeing 50-70 knot speedmax/shortwave crossing Iowa/Wisconsin/Illinois in the afternoon, and timing could be critical in regards to storm development
Both NAM/GFS at this point showing great instability (2500-4000 cape) and pretty good shear depending on the model (40-50 knots), forecast 3km EHIs in the 6-10 range around 21z Monday. Surface winds will be pretty much southerly or perhaps slightly veered or backed from there, depending on how it works out, with nice turning with height.
It will likely be an HP mess with PW forecast to be 1.75 to 2.25 inches!
But, I am hoping this pans out for one last local chase this year.
GFS and NAM have some major differences per the 18z runs today, but overall I see enough qualities to get me excited. A very seasonably strong upper trough looks to make its way across the upper MS valley on Monday with a closed low hanging over Canada. I'm seeing 50-70 knot speedmax/shortwave crossing Iowa/Wisconsin/Illinois in the afternoon, and timing could be critical in regards to storm development
Both NAM/GFS at this point showing great instability (2500-4000 cape) and pretty good shear depending on the model (40-50 knots), forecast 3km EHIs in the 6-10 range around 21z Monday. Surface winds will be pretty much southerly or perhaps slightly veered or backed from there, depending on how it works out, with nice turning with height.
It will likely be an HP mess with PW forecast to be 1.75 to 2.25 inches!
But, I am hoping this pans out for one last local chase this year.