2014-06-29 FCST: NE/IA/MN

[Royce Sheibal]

No one posted yet, so here we go. I've taken tomorrow off of work, so clearly it will be a bust day, but let's hope not!

Scenario: All models agree on 2000-4000k ML CAPE heading from Lincoln to Waterloo, IA. LI's will be very high in the 12-14 range. Shear is not bonkers, but as we've seen this year in Nebraska, a lot of shear (mother's day) can make for a bad chase, and a little shear along a boundary (6/16-6/18) has huge potential. After nailing the 6/16 through 6/18 forecasts, I think this setup deserves a similar approach for our targets (2000 ML cape, 40+ ESRH, ML LCL <1250).Based on SPC ensembles, I think the best tor chances for the day will be in N Central IA near Ames back down to just east of Omaha. Storms there should fire shortly after noon and continue till sundown or later. I however refuse to chase in Iowa, so I'll be making a secondary target in Nebraska.

Target #2 is Crete Nebraska. The positioning of this quasi-stationary frontal blob will really determine tomorrow's event. Picking a target north of the front near Norfolk means I could have to backtrack south through crapvection(which has occurred several times this year). The prime spot last few chases has been on the SW corner of the warm front / low level jet intersection. Be wary of huge hail, OMA sounding for 7pm - 10pm tomorrow predict nightmarish baseball+.

I won't leave right away tomorrow, so I'll make an update once the morning HRRR comes in.

 

[Bob Schafer]

I'm always Debbie Downer. Okay, not always, but I looked at the NAM and saw initiation in the western regions of NE before noon, and immediately thought to myself: "Uh oh, that is not good. Not good at all."

I believe that with the sfc winds veered to the SW over there, that you're going to have an MCS nightmare by the the time you can get your pants on. Good luck with it, but I'm staying home.

 

[Austin Jones]

I'm targeting NW Mo this afternoon because it local and worth a shot for me, I'm not real experienced so I don't have much to say as far as forecasting , other than this mornings convection is making me nervous and I would like to hear the opinions of some more experienced chasers/forecasters about this afternoon.

 

[Mike Marz]

No expert here either. Was pretty excited to chase this setup yesterday morning but things have changed quite a bit it seems. Hodographs were looking very nice yesterday with 0-1 helicity values over 200 in north/central IA. This was great but then it was still an issue of storms staying super cellular rather than merging and squalling out. Today models are showing very sad hodographs, I can't really find backed winds anywhere. Deciding not to make the drive anymore. Won't be surprised if the SPC removes the moderate at the 11:30... But then again you never really know. Wasn't expecting the best tornado of my life on 6-17 in Coleridge in a cute 5%. Good luck if you do decide to give this set-up a go.

 

[Royce Sheibal]

Boy things can change a lot in 24 hours. Models are now shifting main area of concern down to SE NEB (my 2nd target) and NE KS/NW MO (good call austin). The front is draped just south of omaha and we've got over running crapvection, but based on current radar it is falling apart and should be gone by 1pm. This is really going to be one of those days where I won't hit the road till 1pm or later. EHI/STP maxes around 6pm just SW of Lincoln and I think that will be our best area. SPC's ensemble has the entire region covered with storms, but best helicity remains on the SW corner of the front/LLJ intersection (which i might consider my new favorite spot). HRRR and RAP are both making a mockery of today, so who knows what will really happen.

 

[Taylor Wright]

RAP and NAM have best areas of low-level shear in NE KS and SE NE. 1km helicity values exceed 100 m2/s2 there, at least. Doesn't get much better than that anywhere else. With the instability that's in place and 500 mb shear above 40 kts, it wouldn't take much to get a isolated cell to go into supercell mode. HRRR has them developing just north of Emporia, KS up into Manhattan around 5 pm moving east toward Topeka.

I wasn't going to chase today since I have to work tomorrow, but this might be close enough that I'll take the chance at another bust.