Jeff House
Supporter
Looks like Texas will have a set-up on Thursday. Outflow boundary will intersect front and/or triple point in Central Texas or perhaps North Texas. I expect some morning rain to be in progress early Thursday. It should establish an outflow boundary OFB to work with. The 850 mb winds may be straight south, not backed too much south of the OFB; however, those 850 winds should back slightly along the OFB. Winds quickly veer aloft starting at 700 up through 500 mb. Jet stream level winds should be just enough. All of the above presents a possible chasable set-up in Central/North Texas on Thursday.
Surface moisture should return, despite dews down in the low to mid-60s today. Dews in the 70s have returned near Houston and are heading up I-45 tonight. It is always possible that morning thunderstorms never weaken, and create a sloppy environment near the triple point TP. If chasing, my preferred cell would be at the TP or the second one east of the TP. Some guidance shows cells going south of the TP along the front. Those would offer clearer viewing, but I'm not sure about tornado probability down there. Either way looks like some Texas size fun on Thursday.
Surface moisture should return, despite dews down in the low to mid-60s today. Dews in the 70s have returned near Houston and are heading up I-45 tonight. It is always possible that morning thunderstorms never weaken, and create a sloppy environment near the triple point TP. If chasing, my preferred cell would be at the TP or the second one east of the TP. Some guidance shows cells going south of the TP along the front. Those would offer clearer viewing, but I'm not sure about tornado probability down there. Either way looks like some Texas size fun on Thursday.
