2013-06-18 FCST: CO

[Adam Adkins]

Palmer Divide time. Winds back over the Palmer Divide today, and with the exaggerated terrain here it will certainly increase the shear in the region. A short wave moves over at the maximum of daily heating, and the subtropical jet noses in around the same time. The models show good SE inflow into the area, so I expect and hope that this supercell that develops will not go to directly outflow-dominant. Given my palmer divide experience, I expect a supercell to develop around the Castle Rock region to the south maybe to Monument, and then move to the southeast. This storm will rotate and have the potential for a tornado and well as some massive structure. The latest 13 rapid update model shows 3500 j/kg sfc CAPE as well. Elsewhere the setup seems to be more marginal, but still good for Colorado. MLCAPE around 2000 and 35-45kts should be appropriate for supercells, but I think the favored storm today will be the palmer divide mesocyclone.