chrisbray
EF4
Ok, I am going to try do some analysis on what appears to be a strong system moving through the Missouri Valley on Monday, May 20. I'm going to keep this in the introductory forum and just mimic the target area format because I'm a noob at this...so any additional thoughts on this forecast are very welcome, as well as any tips or feedback on other things to analyze for this!
Ok so...
Latest GFS shows great instability across the majority of Illinois and eastern Missouri with ML Cape from 2000-3000 by late afternoon. I'm aware GFS tends to overdo moisture, but the indications are Tds over 70 for the most part. So conservatively, I'm assuming they will more likely be mid-upper 60s.
Capping doesn't appear to be to much of a concern with 700 mb temps under 10 degrees, but I wonder if this will lead to a lot of early convection that could limit destabalization across Illinois?
500mb winds approach 60 knots by evening, and, correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like a low level jet develops in the evening as well, as it shows 850mb winds ramp up to 30-40 knots.
Wind shear looks great with 25-30 kts from sfc-850mb and sfc-500 appraoching 50-60 as the evening progresses.
Forecast hodographs in the area seem a bit confusing to me with random turns so I will hold out judgement until the take shape in later forecasts.
Anything else I am missing here? Other things I should check? Additional thoughts or advice? I know its still a long ways out and the forecast is going to undergo changes, but I wanted to try my hand at getting the basics down with forecasting a potentail event 5 or so days out. Thanks!
Ok so...
Latest GFS shows great instability across the majority of Illinois and eastern Missouri with ML Cape from 2000-3000 by late afternoon. I'm aware GFS tends to overdo moisture, but the indications are Tds over 70 for the most part. So conservatively, I'm assuming they will more likely be mid-upper 60s.
Capping doesn't appear to be to much of a concern with 700 mb temps under 10 degrees, but I wonder if this will lead to a lot of early convection that could limit destabalization across Illinois?
500mb winds approach 60 knots by evening, and, correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like a low level jet develops in the evening as well, as it shows 850mb winds ramp up to 30-40 knots.
Wind shear looks great with 25-30 kts from sfc-850mb and sfc-500 appraoching 50-60 as the evening progresses.
Forecast hodographs in the area seem a bit confusing to me with random turns so I will hold out judgement until the take shape in later forecasts.
Anything else I am missing here? Other things I should check? Additional thoughts or advice? I know its still a long ways out and the forecast is going to undergo changes, but I wanted to try my hand at getting the basics down with forecasting a potentail event 5 or so days out. Thanks!
