2012-06-29 MISC: Midwest/Appalachians Derecho

[Dan Robinson]

Friday's derecho event is remarkable in many respects and possibly historic in some. Extreme instability in regions that rarely see it (6000 MLCAPE across KY/OH with 4500s into WV) and the most total and widespread power outages due to convective severe storms I think I've ever heard of. The impacts of the event in West Virginia may be unprecedented in terms of percentages of people without power. There are several counties with nearly 100% of people without power, and most counties are in the 70% range, including in Charleston (Kanawha County). Nearly 70% of the grid statewide! That type of impact is something usually seen only with major landfalling hurricanes and the worst of ice storms. Check out this AEP outage data:

https://www.aepcustomer.com/outagemap/main.aspx?region=apco

SPC has some interesting radar composites on their Facebook page:

http://www.facebook.com/#!/US.NOAA.StormPredictionCenter

 

[MClarkson]

Its not often you see 5000 CAPEs over DC... A combination of the record or near-record heat and humidity across the eastern half of the US. The entire outflow boundary propagated eastward moving from near Chicago to near DC in only about 8 hours. Usually it takes about a day for most weather to make that kind of journey.

 

[Dan Robinson]

This image has been making the rounds today - a nighttime satellite image animation showing visible artificial light before and after:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/~jordang/VIIRS_DNB__REF_comp.gif

I am from Charleston (moved to STL metro in January 2010), and what I'm hearing from friends is exactly what you'd see after a major hurricane landfall. Andy's post above describes the situation accurately. I lived in Charleston from 1997 to 2010, actively chasing every event the region saw. This one by far is the worst in terms of impact on such a large scale than any I experienced. There have been several smaller-scale wind events of similar intensity, but none anywhere near this scale.

Thankfully my house (still on the market) and all of the trees in my yard survived.

 

[TJKLECKNER]

This image has been making the rounds today - a nighttime satellite image animation showing visible artificial light before and after:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/​~jordang/​VIIRS_DNB__REF_comp.gif

I am from Charleston (moved to STL metro in January 2010), and what I'm hearing from friends is exactly what you'd see after a major hurricane landfall. Andy's post above describes the situation accurately. I lived in Charleston from 1997 to 2010, actively chasing every event the region saw. This one by far is the worst in terms of impact on such a large scale than any I experienced. There have been several smaller-scale wind events of similar intensity, but none anywhere near this scale.

Thankfully my house (still on the market) and all of the trees in my yard survived.

Broken link.........

 

[Dan Robinson]

Fixed...link was truncated.

 

[Bob Schafer]

I'm gonna say this as gently as I can. I say it knowing it may get me in trouble with the mods. So be it.

You haven't had your house burn to the ground. You haven't had flood waters up to your roof. You haven't had an ice storm that has left you without heat in the midst of winter, whereas air conditioning wasn't even invented until about a century ago. You haven't had your house reduced to its foundation by an F5. An awful lot of people in this country have experienced a lot worse than you in the last decade.

Chances are, you will have food to eat and clean water to drink tomorrow.

You live in a country that allows you to speak your mind freely. Nobody is going to show up at your door and make you disappear tomorrow. You won't be beheaded for getting drunk if you choose to do so. You may attend the church of your choice, or none at all.

Better yet, let's think about our brave warriors who have served and suffered and died in Iraq and Afghanistan, and put our cushy lives (with the occasional hiccups) into that sort of context. God Bless 'em, huh?

 

[Terrence Cook]

As amazing as the scope of this storm was, Bob is on the money... The lack of A/C is something the poor in this country are quite used to, ignoring the fact that fans require electricity, I would say the only issue here is food supply and medicine that requires refridgeration. Those with generators should assist the elderly and this should teach people the value of gardening or food supply beyond perishables.

All that aside, it is stunning to think of how common storms like these are (compared to super tornado outbreaks) and how our growing populations are increasingly vulnerable to such events.

When i hear of runs on gas stations and the like i think of how country folk have it made. Population density gets scary when heat turns people insane and theres no gas or mcdonalds. A garden and some solar/wind turbines could get you a long ways with such events, unrealistic for everyone but increasingly logical this day and age. Although mostly irrelevant to this subject, one day a geomagnetic storm will do something similar... What in the hell will happen then?

 

[Dan Robinson]

I'm sorry if my posting this was misunderstood. For West Virginia, this is possibly the most significant convective severe weather event in decades, definitely worse than any I saw when I was there. That is why it is remarkable.

It is by no means a major disaster comparable to Joplin or Katrina, but for the region, it is significant.

 

[Andy Wade]

Just went ahead and took down my earlier posts. Dan's last pretty much sums it up. I can see how mine might have been taken really badly, so it's best just to avoid that. Sorry if I offended anyone who's been through something much worse.

 

[Terrence Cook]

I dont think Bob meant to dismiss the significance of the event but rather the typical panic of people in a situation that they think is as bad as it gets and 'quarrel at the gas pump' as a result. The timing of this event with a continuing heat wave is going to be a major story and concern for the elderly and young alike. The challenges for electrical utilities in a mountainous region with increasing pop. density as you get East is difficult to imagine.

Thank you Dan for posting the links!

 

[Bob Schafer]

Terrence is also right. I agree it's a significant event, but here's my deal: I am currently visiting family in Worthington Ohio, and so I am right in the midst of the damage. I was here during the event. We tried to go to church this morning, but found out when we got there it had been cancelled due to the power outage. Then we drove around to various stores to do some shopping, and there are power outages and tree limbs all over the place.

I'm jaded from having been to NOLA in September 2005 and Greensburg a year after May 4 2007, and more. This is just laughable to me after that, but I should just keep my mouth shut if I don't have anything nice to say. Just think of me as the grumpy old uncle nobody takes seriously.

 

[Bob Hartig]

After reading through this thread, it strikes me as a balanced discussion, and I think that in presenting two sides of a significant weather event, Andy's and Bob's comments have both helped put it in perspective. The derecho was indeed a monster with a wide-scale impact which, thanks to Dan, has been called out as such. In reading Andy's posts, I've gotten a feel for just how impactful it was. That said, it's nothing like a Joplin or a Katrina, as Bob has observed (and which neither Dan nor Andy were suggesting). Both of these points are legitimate, and in my estimation, they give the discussion depth and balance. While you, Bob, obviously feel strongly about your POV, you haven't been mean-spirited in sharing it. Andy, I regret that you chose to take down your comments; I saw nothing wrong with them and considered them valuable. Overall, I don't see the views expressed in this thread to be conflicting, but complementary. It's exactly the kind of discussion I appreciate: one where different views on a topic are shared respectfully to paint a bigger, more complete picture.

 

[Andy Wade]

I can sum up what I've heard/seen, maybe without overstating it:
- AEP had been reporting 75% of its WV customers without power; that's dropped to at least 65%. Just about everyone should have power by next Friday.
- There was a region-wide run on gasoline as people raided the few powered stations for both their vehicles and generators. Entire cities ran out of available gas. This run is dying down now, 48 hours later.
- The RLX radar picked up velocities over 100 mph across a wide area, two counties away, at its lowest tilt.
- The last count of fatalities I heard was 12. It's interesting to note that to my knowledge, none of those were in West Virginia, which was swept border-to-border.
- The heat wave is leading many people to sleep in motels and tents, though a few more shelters are gradually opening now.
- This region hasn't experienced that kind of weather in most residents' lifetimes, and people in the more populated areas are generally unprepared for a week without electricity. Winter storms with days of lead time are the only exception. A few hours' notice on this storm might have eased some of the panic.
- This event was not all that hard to see by early afternoon, yet got virtually no attention outside SPC until it bore down on DC and Baltimore. Even local WFOs only mentioned things like "storms north tonight" while continuing to focus on the heat. Stormtrack's forecast thread for the day lists only South Dakota and Nebraska (understandable, as most of us aren't out chasing Appalachian derechos).

Didn't mean to remove anything useful, but I understand how people who've seen the once-in-a-lifetime storms would think the whole thing's way overblown.

 

[John Farley]

Hard to tell with some of the posts deleted, but I don't think the reaction to this storm is overblown. Several years ago, the STL area was hit by two derechos in a 3-day period, resulting in 700,000 customers without power in 100+ degree temperatures. In the aftermath and with the extreme heat, a number of people died of the heat with no air conditioning, no fans, and in many cases limited ability to communicate. In the derecho a couple days ago, 12 or 13 (I've heard conflicting figures) died as an immediate result of the storm, and you can be sure with the heat that additional people are dying due to the combination of extreme heat and no power. And now today some of the affected areas are being hit again by severe weather. Nobody said it was Katrina or Joplin (unless that was in something that was deleted), but this IS a big deal and I suspect that if you have ever gone through several days with no power in a severe heat wave you would agree it is a big deal.

 

[Derek Weston]

Terrence is also right. I agree it's a significant event, but here's my deal: I am currently visiting family in Worthington Ohio, and so I am right in the midst of the damage. I was here during the event. We tried to go to church this morning, but found out when we got there it had been cancelled due to the power outage. Then we drove around to various stores to do some shopping, and there are power outages and tree limbs all over the place.

I'm jaded from having been to NOLA in September 2005 and Greensburg a year after May 4 2007, and more. This is just laughable to me after that, but I should just keep my mouth shut if I don't have anything nice to say. Just think of me as the grumpy old uncle nobody takes seriously.

Hey... you try going without mountain dew for a few days and get back to me on that...