2012-06-07 FCST: CO/WY/NE

[Eric Bucsela]

Looks like another fine day for Colorado chasing. If RAP is to be believed, params will be even better than yesterday with CAPE today 2500 J/kg or so and 500 mb winds a little stronger. Main show yesterday was a near-stationary cell in SE Denver w/multiple tornado reports. Could be a repeat today?

 

[Jesse Risley]

Moisture quality definitely looks better today, and I presume the models are picking up on that, even though I suspect that the ECMWF is on to something in showing that some mixing will take place again today, though it still appears that we will have better CAPE than yesterday owed to this slightly better moisture. Surface flow into the region again looks pretty magnanimous at 15-20 kts, along with 20kt+ southerly H7 flow. There should be no shortage of lift for both targets, with a subtle H5 perturbation swinging through to the north, and the convergent winds east of DEN courtesy of the DCVZ, which is noted on current satellite and radar observations, along with short-term models. It looks like storms will first initiate across the Cheyenne Ridge and propagate ESE, with initiation in NE CO being progged for after 20z per short-term HRRR/RAP/NAM trends. Bulk shear profiles should favor the evolution of organized multicell and supercell structures, and I would fully expect a similar situation to yesterday, with large hail and tornadoes, some of the landspout variety.

 

[Adam Adkins]

The atmosphere is very favorable for development at this time. CAPE is pushing 3000 and 3500 sb, a slight cap, and with dewpoints nearly at 60 in centennial. Shear is also better attm than yesterday. Temps need to warm some more though. I am sticking south in Castle Rock until development occurs more locally, rather than farther north.