James Gustina
Supporter
Focusing on the OH/IN part of this:
Pretty marginal setup for this weekend. Low swinging down from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes with a warm front draping northwest to southeast from Michigan through Ohio. Cold front bringing up the rear extending from Illinois back into Kansas. Pretty nice moisture spread across Ohio and Indiana with dewpoints forecasted to be up into the 70s. Back through Illinois and Missouri the NAM has the dewpoint in the 60s. Pretty nice instability overspreading western Ohio/eastern Indiana down through Kentucky and Tennessee with SBCAPE being put around 4000 j/kg. Little bit lower across northern Illinois and Missouri at around 3000 j/kg. The two biggest issues I have with this setup are the winds at the surface and the lack of directional shear. The winds at the surface are veered which does not bode well. The directional shear is also lacking for any meaningful storm organization (right now that is). The cap is gonna be pretty strong at 12C at 700 mb, but the temperature climbing into the mid-90s should offset that pretty well. All in all its pretty conditional right now. If theres more turning in the lower levels by tomorrow we should be in business.
Pretty marginal setup for this weekend. Low swinging down from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes with a warm front draping northwest to southeast from Michigan through Ohio. Cold front bringing up the rear extending from Illinois back into Kansas. Pretty nice moisture spread across Ohio and Indiana with dewpoints forecasted to be up into the 70s. Back through Illinois and Missouri the NAM has the dewpoint in the 60s. Pretty nice instability overspreading western Ohio/eastern Indiana down through Kentucky and Tennessee with SBCAPE being put around 4000 j/kg. Little bit lower across northern Illinois and Missouri at around 3000 j/kg. The two biggest issues I have with this setup are the winds at the surface and the lack of directional shear. The winds at the surface are veered which does not bode well. The directional shear is also lacking for any meaningful storm organization (right now that is). The cap is gonna be pretty strong at 12C at 700 mb, but the temperature climbing into the mid-90s should offset that pretty well. All in all its pretty conditional right now. If theres more turning in the lower levels by tomorrow we should be in business.