2011-05-12 FCST:TX/OK/AR/MO

[ChristianTerry]

Surprised nobody has looked at this. Thought I would start it out. I am going to concentrate on the southern target and my home state of Texas on this one. SPC has a slight risk for all the states mentioned in the title and seems that the highest risk will be in central Texas. Surface lifted index looked good at last glance as well as moisture and relative humidity. Looks like the dryline will still be holding in West Texas and some instability will make its way in. Thinking the cap in south Texas that has been holding on the last couple of weeks may finally lift enough to get some rain in.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

looking at the 00Z RUC @ 18Z on twister data W of Tulsa to an area E of Joplin looks awesome, soundings are looking good with strong CAPE, from a line stretching from Des Moines down to Austin. temps and dewpoints for the 00Z RUC @ 18Z near Tulsa have the surface temps and dewpoints pretty close together, hodograph is iffy, but might be something decent, upper level atmosphere may be a bit too moist however. low 0-1km and 0-3km helicity values are lacking and have me skeptical of any strong tornadoes, but perhaps a few weak to moderate short lived ones will be possible. Surface LCL Heights should keep the storm bases low enough to get some decent rope outs. Storm Motions will be slow, with surface temps in the 80's with dewpoints registering in the 70's. CAP does not appear to be a limiting factor, however with the lack of CAP too many storms may fire off and the energy from all the storms will be chocked off by each other. still could be an interesting day, can't discount seeing a few tornadoes.

feel free to make corrections as you see fit (still learning forecasting here).