Matthew Havin
EF2
Let's get this party started. Wednesday is setting up for a significant severe weather outbreak for the TN/OH Valleys. SPC has a D2 MOD risk issued from Cleveland, Ohio all the way down to central MS. A rapidly strengthening low pressure system will bomb out over the Ohio Valley by Wednesday afternoon < 985mb, with the NAM hinting at a secondary low near the Memphis area.....fueled by a 100+ knot 500mb jet core over the TN Valley by the afternoon. A massive area of 200,000+ square miles are threatened by a significant....potentially historic tornado outbreak.
There are conditional concerns with what is going on w/ tonight's HIGH risk event. If things can move out by late morning and then proceed to clear out in the TN Valley during the midday....... then we are looking at a HIGH risk event with 4000+ CAPE, 250+ 0-1km SRH, and 6+ 0-1km EHI. Supercells blowing up in the early afternoon in N MS/W TN/W KY... then becoming somewhat more linear w/ embedded elements by late afternoon/early evening as the system moves over Nashville/Huntsville metros...where greatest tornado threat exists.
There are conditional concerns with what is going on w/ tonight's HIGH risk event. If things can move out by late morning and then proceed to clear out in the TN Valley during the midday....... then we are looking at a HIGH risk event with 4000+ CAPE, 250+ 0-1km SRH, and 6+ 0-1km EHI. Supercells blowing up in the early afternoon in N MS/W TN/W KY... then becoming somewhat more linear w/ embedded elements by late afternoon/early evening as the system moves over Nashville/Huntsville metros...where greatest tornado threat exists.