2011-04-26 Now: TX,OK,AR,LA,MS,TN

[Trey Thee]

This is a major outbreak underway that seems as though it will carry over through tomorrow. Parameters still look impressive for tomorrow.

I'm worried about Memphis that cell is moving through a highly populated area.

Additional cells going up to the south and south southwest of the DFW metroplex. They will likely move to the east and bear watching.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

very well defined hook entering the west side of Memphis, and looks like Memphis will just get pounded on tonight, storm after storm is just lined up.

 

[J Allen]

Very concerning to read the MD:
WARM-SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IN FACT...PRE-STORM LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SIGNIFICANT/DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS JUST ABOVE SFC...SUBSTANTIALLY BOOSTING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SRH. LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ALSO IS LIKELY FROM INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS.

As I translated for some friends of mine. All hell is going to break loose on sunset, and thats with numerous tornadic supercells underway already . Majority of tornado reports thus far are coming from TX it seems.

 

[Andrew Mackenzie]

Nada in the DFW Metro area. Cool dry north wind approx 15mph and as tranquil as can be. A big bust for us.

 

[Trey Thee]

Very concerning to read the MD:
WARM-SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. IN FACT...PRE-STORM LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SIGNIFICANT/DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS JUST ABOVE SFC...SUBSTANTIALLY BOOSTING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SRH. LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ALSO IS LIKELY FROM INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS.

As I translated for some friends of mine. All hell is going to break loose on sunset, and thats with numerous tornadic supercells underway already . Majority of tornado reports thus far are coming from TX it seems.

This looks like one of those text book outbreaks that we'll be talking about for years. Could 80 to 100 tors between today and tomorrow. Really impressive hook due south of Dallas.

 

[J Allen]

Impressive looking flying V heading for somewhere between Louisville and Elizabethtown KY. Tornado warned and one to watch all on its lonesome.

Edit: Agree Trey, this is the sort of day when tornadoes may be coming off everything. Certainly continues the trend for this April of very impressive outbreaks and activity. Shame its affecting the populous areas.

And now a hook echo on the KY storm.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Nada in the DFW Metro area. Cool dry north wind approx 15mph and as tranquil as can be.

That's because the warm front never made it to the DFW metro area and thus there was no SBCAPE.

 

[Kevin Statler]

I still think LCL's need to drop some,a lot of repots on funnel clouds with the storms,but not tornadoes on ground..

 

[BBauer]

There is a surprising lack of reports coming in from chaser streaming video. Anyone seen any tornadoes through the streams?

 

[Michael Riedl]

With the well established warm sector that we have right now, and shear forecasted to get worse per SPC MD, it quite possibly could only get worse.


Storm South of Marshall, TX is becoming the dominant storm that I am watching right now, VERY tight couplet.

Storm in Kentucky is in a favorable area for it to continue to steam along as well (300 Efctv SRH)

 

[Jeff Duda]

The shear parameters are really jumping now, especially in C/S/SE TX and not as much in other areas like AR/LA/TN. The triple point looks to be just south of DFW right now and surface convergence is maximized there. That is southwest of the southwesternmost extent of convection right now. SBCAPE is still very high and effective shear is now poking above 100 kts in that area! There is pretty solid 30-40 kts S at 925 mb, about 40 from the SSW at 850 mb, then 45 - 55 out of the SW at 700 mb and the mid-level jet max of WSW/W at 65 - 80 kts at 500 mb. Thus ESRH is very high, too, upwards of 400 m2/s2 in C/S/E TX. Given the progression of the event so far, I'd say much of S AR will probably not lay in the worst area as night comes. I would think N LA would be in much worse shape without further northward progression of the warm sector, but the warm sector is being inundated with intense convection in AR right now.

Really, though, I'd be very careful about about deep south Texas over the next few hours. That's where most of the highest composite indices are showing up right now, and it's the only undisturbed environment left. Recent runs of the HRRR do suggest isolated supercells developing just east of the Austin-San Antonio corridor very soon and impacting areas near Houston.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I still think LCL's need to drop some,a lot of repots on funnel clouds with the storms,but not tornadoes on ground..

There is a surprising lack of reports coming in from chaser streaming video. Anyone seen any tornadoes through the streams?

I don't think LCL heights are the problem. The storms are working their way into an area with LCL heights below 500 m and are currently along a gradient, but are still in areas of 1250 m or less. I wonder if the close spacing of storms is causing enough interference and screwing up the otherwise very good environmental horizontal vorticity/helicity.

Of course, the lack of reports could be due to the fact that, since there are so many storms out there, the chasers are widely distributed among them and thus tornadoes may be occurring but not getting reported. Isn't the terrain in E TX pretty full of trees? That would make some quite hard to see.

 

[BBauer]

...........................thought Andy Gabrielson was streaming a funnel but I couldn't quite make it out on the stream

 

[Trey Thee]

I still think LCL's need to drop some,a lot of repots on funnel clouds with the storms,but not tornadoes on ground..

That is excellent news given the populations in the path of these storms.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I'm thinking yesterday's activity stabilized the atmosphere somewhat and the unchecked explosive activity earlier today initiated storm seeding quickly. It seems the main mode so far has been embedded, often intense, shear, but I have yet to see any sustained classic signatures. This is not to say things could change later, especially further E/SE where the atmosphere is not worked over -- when conditions improve per the MD as noted. I have yet to hear of any major damage or "large" tornado reports as one would expect today.

W.