2009 Weather Predictions...

[Randall Marable]

I wasn't quite sure which forum to create this thread so I chose this one. I was kinda interested to know everyone's weather predictions for 2009. You may include severe weather, floods, droughts, hurricanes, etc in your predictions for any area or region of your choice. This is a trivia thread not meant to be taken very seriously. This thread is just for fun for weather enthusiasts who may want to take a shot at what they feel may happen in 2009. So everyone please feel free to take your best shot.

 

[Brian Stertz]

While a guess at this point, I am predicting a pretty active mid/late spring for the I-35 corridor from Iowa down into NC/NE Oklahoma. Looks like the deep surface low tracks by mid/late April and points onward will run along or just west of I-35.

The "normal" climatologically favored areas for early spring weather will be quite busy across AR/MO/IL/MS/TN/AL/LA/IN/KY/OH as the stronger surface lows track from the Lower-Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Whether or not a major tornado outbreak occurs this year, this tone will be set by no Gulf Coast frontal intrusions to shove the good theta air and trap it in the Gulf.

Just my take

 

[Jason Boggs]

Well, I'll tell you this. I think the TX panhandle might be a little slow as far as severe weather this spring. We haven't received any substantial rainfall in quite a long time. So far, this winter has been VERY dry. Evapotranspiration in the region will be minimal due to the said lack of moisture. This means the dryline will scream eastward until it gets into deeper moisture and then it will slow down.

What does this all mean? I think it means us TX Panhandle chasers will be driving into OK a lot this spring unless things change, and change quickly. Fires may be on the menu for this spring, just like 2006 was.

Some of you may say that this evapotranspiration process isn't that big of a deal. It is around here. Back in 06 we would sometimes have dews in the 60's in the morning. By noon, it would be in the upper 40's to low 50's. The dry air would mix down and the dryline would scream eastward because of the shallow layer of moisture. If we can get a LOT of rain or snow in the next 2 or 3 months, then we'll be in business.

As far as the best area for severe wx this year. Hmmm....I'm thinking southern OK into north TX for some reason. Don't hold me to that though. Wichita Falls, go ahead and take cover now!!!

 

[Paul Knightley]

I am really trying to decide whether to come over and chase this year, due to the financial situation, dollar/pound exchange rate, etc. I was all ready to say definately not having been looking at predictions of the ENSO phase heading towards positive. However, latest indications seem to be calling for a continuation of La Nina well into spring, and whilst there is no real correlation between ENSO phase and tornado numbers, there does seem to be some between outbreaks and La Nina. Currently, it looks like it might be rather like last year, but don't hold me to that. I certainly wouldn't want to see any more destruction, but then that's not someting I can do anything about.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I bet there will be chasing opportunities and Tornadoes starting in March.

Then there will be plenty of days where people see stuff, some busts as well.

And when it's all said and done, we'll end in June.

And yes....I do think it'll be a typical year, if that wasn't apparent already. Going out on a limb with this forecast

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I agree that we will see another active year. Being a firm believer in Gary Lezak's LRC weather cycle which states that the weather pattern goes in cycles through the Winter and Spring and we are in a calm pattern at the moment with an active 3-4 weeks by the end of January and into February. I think we will see a few severe weather event during this time. The cycle will kick back up in March and April and then in May and June. With that said I think we will see another doozy of a season and check out the long term drought index over the entire country as opposed to 2008. WOW! I have never seen anything like that ever. I mean 2003-2004 were actually pretty dry in the Plains during the winter months and they turned out to be incredible seasons. I can't even fathom what we may see with all of this moisture. I am saying this with 2 inches of snow on the ground in KC with more falling.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/us-weekly.php?year=2009&month=1&day=10&submitted=true

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/us-weekly.php?year=2008&month=01&day=12&submitted=Submit

 

[Matthew Harding]

I am curious to see what effects the very wet 2008 will have on the upcoming tornado season. I do think that it will be an active year, however, we aren't seeing the number of intense storms so far this winter compared to what we had last winter. It seems to me as if we have been "Northwest Flow Dominant" (atleast here in the central plains) this winter and if that pattern continues, then I believe areas E of the Mississippi River will be in for a HUGE year.

 

[Steve Sherrod]

Best Guess

Here is my input. Following the last few years progression in the plains, there are 2 areas that will see action. Late feb/march/early april, east texas,arkansas,ne ok ,ark,sw mo and se ks will see strong storms. Based on the large amount of moisture in 08. Also, if you look at this winters cold fronts and how they haved crashed into the area and moved east this will give us the early explosion in the areas above.
April, May and June if the rain returns to the Tx panhandle we will see storms that follow paths close to the 06 patterns. Except, the storms will be east of the greensburg tracks by approx. 60 miles. North central and south central ks will be excellent areas for chasing and filming.
Good luck everyone, keep safe.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

SPECULATION SPECULATION SPECULATION.....all this jibber jabber is nothing more than speculation and hopeful thinking.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I can't even fathom what we may see with all of this moisture. I am saying this with 2 inches of snow on the ground in KC with more falling.http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate...hp?year=2008&month=01&day=12&submitted=Submit

Even more HP supercells?

 

[Jeff Richardson]

Another speculative two cents...

If fuel prices per gallon continue to steadily rise, we'll have a GREAT season with a bounty of slow-moving chaseable classic supercells lumbering over some fine road networks!

If the petrol stays at a buck fifty or less...bust after bust after bust. :-(

 

[Jason Boggs]

SPECULATION SPECULATION SPECULATION.....all this jibber jabber is nothing more than speculation and hopeful thinking.

I guarantee my previous post isn't speculation. If we don't get some good moisture very soon, come to the TX panhandle in the spring and tell me what you see. Sure, there will be storms, but there will probably be more wildfires to chase. Talk to us panhandle chasers about what 06 was like without the moisture.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I agree with what Jason is saying, but looking at the GFS we are about to enter the active period here in about a week or so and the Panhandles north into W Kansas could see big time precip and possibly even 55F dews all the way to Lubbock, TX with 50F possibly reaching Amarillo!

 

[David Drummond]

Jason isn't kidding. When we have long term drought (or near drought) conditions in Northwest Texas/Eastern NM preceding the spring convective season, without fail dryline's either forms regularly east of the caprock, or quickly mix out that way. I've witnessed this since I started paying attention in the mid-80s. Sure we get an event or two on the caprock even then, but not much.

There is very little vegetation cover up on the caprock during the winter/early spring. When it's really dry, like it is now, it's very difficult to get the dewpoints up and to stay up. Best I can figure the ground saps it out of the air like a spong.

It's been so dry out here lately you can't even walk through the house without nearly electrocuting yourself several times from all the static electricity. We need precip. We need a lot of it. ...and we need it soon.

Currently the dewpoint in LBB is 12F and 10F in AMA. And that is WET compared to some of the double digit negative dewpoints we've had going on lately.

 

[Karla Dorman]

In North Central Texas, high pressure/NW flow entrenched, as has been most of the Winter. In need of rain. Will we get it? Only time will tell.