2/8/2009 NOW: NM/TX

[rdale]

Severe storms are lined up just west of the state line, but moving not too far east of due north so hard to get any one particular storm going. Some 1/2" hail reported, radar indicates maybe a few spots could have larger, and a sheriffnado but that was cleared pretty quick as dust from the outflow.

 

[rdale]

TTU sounding just sent up west of Lubbock still pretty strongly capped off...

http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/Soundings/020908/FE080922_SKEW.jpg

 

[nickgrillo]

Looks like a (broken) line of high-based, outflow-dominant convection developed just ahead of the cold front (in a zone of surface moisture convergence). Low-level / mid-level lapse rates are quite steep in eastcentral/southeast NM which may enhance damaging wind and hail potential with the stronger cells which ingest surface-based inflow parcels. Low-level SRH in eastern NM isn't too bad given the veering boundary layer profiles (with southeasterly flow at the surface). Surface-based instability will slowly decrease and CINH for surface-based / near surface-based inflow will increase with the onset of nocturnal cooling, which should decrease the potential for any severe weather significantly within the next few hours.