2/24/11 NOW: TX, OK, KS, MO, AR, LA, TN, KY, MS

[Jordan Hartley]

Ya nothing like getting the holy crap scared out of you from a dead sleep by a clap of thunder. Put a smile on my face gotta say its been 3 months since ive even seen a storm let alone heard thunder. Fairly dynamic system marching eastward today been watching this system for days gotta say im happy us here in Kansas got a pleasant little surprise from this one. I think ill go ahead and start my day... at 4am for no other reason than we just had our first storm of the year!

Edit: another cell comes through and covers the ground in pea size hail, wakes everyone up now were all into it. This is fun!

 

[Danny Neal]

Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for portions of Oklahoma and Texas this morning. Mainly elevated storms capable of large hail. Expect the storms to organize further as the low pressure system currently developing in Oklahoma gets its' act together and marches eastward. Going to be the start of an extremely active day... please review the rules for posting in the TA and as always be safe out there.

*ALL NON FORECASTS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE TO BE POSTED HERE*

 

[ahaberlie]

Outflow boundary is set up in eastern AR to northern Mississippi. Classic early morning saturation.. temps need a boost. It is pretty cloudy in front of this line of convergence in C TX.

 

[cwachal]

Here we see what could be the first supercell thunderstorm developing in Oklahoma. It already has minor rotation that is evident. There is a small hook on the cell as well.

 

[ChristianTerry]

It looks as if another line of storms is trying to come together over central texas between Dallas and Austin. Probably won't reach sever limits but the moisture is quite good for central and south texas so we could see 1 or 2 storms be warned by the end of the day.

 

[wfrogge]

Im in Memphis and can tell you the sun is peeking through the clouds now. Guessing the warm front is north of me because temps have gone from the lower 60s to right at 70 over the past two hours.

 

[Von Castor]

Had 1" hail 2 miles north of Porum with that cell that just came through.

 

[Zack Hargrove]

Our team is about 20 miles North of and heading to Stuttgart, Arkansas. I think we're going to wait there for a bit and see what starts to shape up with the stuff coming out of the West. I believe this area to the border of LA and into Northwest, MS is primed to go off. Also, eastern Arkansas had great chase terrain with what I'm seeing so far. Never chased out here and am fairly impressed so far east of the mountains. The Mississippi could also pose a problem in a time sensitive situation. Currently looking at some nice breaks in the clouds and maybe even a hazy Cu field developing looking South on state 63. Temps have risen to 73 here.

 

[ChristianTerry]

Starting to see a few cells firing near Tupelo, MS, and into southern Tennessee. As of now, I am still in Houston, at school. This line of storms though continues to grow and strengthen further south. If it gets close enough, I may try to intercept tail end charlie if it gets strong enough.

 

[Jeff House]

The area Christian mentions is now under a tornado watch till 10pm Central. Isolated thunderstorms on the lifting warm front will present a risk of tornadoes when the thunderstorms become supercells. I would wait for cells moving northeast out of Mississippi, crossing the warm front near and/or north of the border with Tenn. Position northeast due to fast motion. Good luck!

 

[Jeff Duda]

I just had a look at the 18Z soundings from KLZK and KSHV. I noticed in the KSHV sounding that there is almost no shear in the 3 - 6 km layer. All of the 0 - 6 km shear is in the lowest 3 km. I think that will impact the storm mode and favor a more linear mode than a supercellular one (in the southern part of the threat area). A similar feature is noted in the KLZK sounding, but in that sounding it is the 1 - 3 km layer that has very little shear. There is some shear in the 4 - 6 km layer, but it is not great. There's huge shear in the lowest 1 km. I'm not sure how that will affect storm mode. There may still be enough deep layer shear to get supercells. Obviously tornadoes are plenty likely given the extreme low-level shear and nearly 100 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE, but it seems like it will indeed end up as circulations embedded within a squall line situation being the dominant storm type (up north, of course). I'm sure a couple of discrete supercells are not out of the question, however.

 

[BBauer]

First Tornado Warning of the afternoon near Cloverport, TN. I think only radar indicated at this point and I don't see anyone on this storm on Spotter Network.

 

[Trey Alvey]

Tor warned supercell ongoing near Jackson, TN. That area seems to always be a tornado magnet this past decade. Also, looks like an outflow boundary is near the Mississippi River and may help to trigger more discrete storms across the ARKLAMISS. Sfc heating has further aided in destabilization in this region. The only negative with the higher than forecasted sfc heating is dewpoints are mixing out and holding around 60.

 

[Scott Hammel]

Latest warning on the Jackson cell...* at 343 PM CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm producing a tornado near Mifflin... or 10 miles
north of Henderson... moving northeast at 35 mph.

Checking the mesoanalysis page on the SPC, northern MS might be the play to get a few discrete cells before the squall overtakes the area. Good CAPE in that area with no cap at all. It looked for a moment that another cell to the S of the Jackson storm was starting to get stronger but has weakened on the latest scan.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

2,000 J/KG CAPE and EHIs at 6 in northern MS/southwestern TN. That area has the best veered low level winds, 400 to 500 m2/s2 SRH and has had enough clearing all day. CU field really bubbling as well. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see a few discrete supercells with potentially strong tornadoes develop within the next few hours in that area.