2/23/2010 FCST: TX

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Shallow cold front will move south through TX to right along the TX Gulf Coast on Sunday before stalling out Monday morning. At the same time, a positively-tilted s/w trough will dig south from the Pac NW to the SWRN U.S. This will result in upslope flow along the rockies beneath shallow cold air inversion. The GFS is showing the 32 line at the sfc all way south to a Austin to College Station line (http://tiny.cc/aPJhM ). Precip will begin Monday evening across West Texas and move east during the morning hours on Tuesday. The GFS indicates a bullseye of precip over North Texas midday Tuesday (http://tiny.cc/cHjQr ). A look at forecast soundings for KFWD @12Z 2/23 shows a nearly saturated and sub-freezing column (suggesting all snow) (http://tiny.cc/QGdss) while KACT has a slight warm nose around 800mb (suggesting sleet rather then ZR) (http://tiny.cc/Kh3W8 ). By 18Z the column (at KACT) has cooled sufficiently to allow for all snow (http://tiny.cc/hUE3P) while KFWD has moistened to complete saturation (http://tiny.cc/7uEqN)

At this time it is difficult to determine the exact QPF's/amounts of winter weather precip but it is looking like this could be a significant event. As time gets closer, well have an opportunity to look at the NAM side of things but as is always the case with winter weather events, things can change quickly as track and temp are extremely critical factors

STAY TUNED

*I apologize for the chopiness in the sounding graphics, I couldnt fit the entire graph onto the screen so I did the best I could

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Models are converging on a bullseye of precip btwn Waco and the DFW metroplex. Both NAM & GFS are consistent in showing high QPF in region bounded by KSEP-KACT-KCRS-KGKY at 18Z. NWS does a good job in pointing out that unlike the record snowstorm earlier in the month, there will be more of a northerly low level flow with this system, thus, resulting in weak dry air advaction at the surface. That said I expect a 4"+ area of snowfall for locations south of the metroplex to Waco with a sharp dropoff of accumulation north of I-20.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Just wanted to add that the last 6" snowfall in Waco was Jan 1982. With the amount of frontogenesis and negative EPV, that will likely be surpassed tomorrow.

 

[MatthewCarman]

I have an Uncle who lives in Texas. He should see 2-4" of snow which is rare where he lives or has been for the last 2-3 decades. Maybe this was common before the 80's. I think this is his 3rd or 4th snow storm. The first one he had dropped around 7" of snow and that last one dropped 2" of snow in his area.

 

[Chris Lott]

Just wanted to add that the last 6" snowfall in Waco was Jan 1982. With the amount of frontogenesis and negative EPV, that will likely be surpassed tomorrow.

It will be total mayhem in Waco if they get 6" of snow. They don't know how to act down here with 1" of snow, much less 6.

 

[Jay McCoy]

So far in Amarillo we have 3-4" today with ice underneath it. Lots of wrecks today. I finally came home to thaw out and get some rest. Tomorrows commute is going to be a nightmare.

I think we are mostly done here. most of it is now swinging south of us and should hit the I-20 corridor the worst.

 

[Karla Dorman]

A video of today's snow fall in Burleson, TX: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeZs9HZ7S_8

Snowfall began around 7 a.m. C.S.T. and ended at 3:00 p.m. C.S.T.

Around 3" total, before the snow stopped and melting ensued. Was pretty while it lasted ...