Brett Adair
EF5
Wam front begins to move back towards the north as SFC low gets organized back into the SRN plains. NAM really screwed me last week, but the latest parameters from the MOS output are kind of scary for HSV...
Midnight Saturday Night
Dew Point 63.6
CAPE 1855
Helicity 508
PWAT 1.18"
LI -6.6
SWEAT 481
TT 57
Wet Bulb Z 9105
Hail Size 1 inch
Showalter Index -5.8
EHI is about 5.5
VGP .50
These two graphics indicate the warm frontal boundary very well as another meteorologist friend of mine pointed out to me...
http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_MESO-ETA_SFC...PTSBLI_36HR.gif
http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_MESO-ETA_0-1...KM_EHI_36HR.gif
This indicates that the directional/speed shear hangs out long enough for about an 8 hour period of tornadic supercells. I buy the latest weaker GFS solution myself....did I mention that the onset of the precip tonight will likely fall in the form of sleet in this region? What a difference 24 hours will make...
Midnight Saturday Night
Dew Point 63.6
CAPE 1855
Helicity 508
PWAT 1.18"
LI -6.6
SWEAT 481
TT 57
Wet Bulb Z 9105
Hail Size 1 inch
Showalter Index -5.8
EHI is about 5.5
VGP .50
These two graphics indicate the warm frontal boundary very well as another meteorologist friend of mine pointed out to me...
http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_MESO-ETA_SFC...PTSBLI_36HR.gif
http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_MESO-ETA_0-1...KM_EHI_36HR.gif
This indicates that the directional/speed shear hangs out long enough for about an 8 hour period of tornadic supercells. I buy the latest weaker GFS solution myself....did I mention that the onset of the precip tonight will likely fall in the form of sleet in this region? What a difference 24 hours will make...