Jason Harris
EF5
SPC has Day 5-6 threat of squall line with severe potential for Wed/Thurs. but looking at GFS the CAPE seems minimal (500)--any thoughts on how this might develop? Hope it's Thurs. daytime and not Wed night. (also, while looking for any input I finally noticed Ed Berry's blog is retired since July). The local forecast discussion for Melbourne includes mention of the strength of the forecast upper level winds:
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My ignorant guess would be since the SB CAPE starts off around 1500 offshore then degrades to 500 overland this would be a rapidly weakening squall line, so the West coast has the best shot, though with some higher CAPE in S. FL, perhaps a chance of some action down there. Not confident that E. FL. will see much. Will be interesting nevertheless to see how models develop by Tues.A COLD FRONT WED NGT/THU MORNING.
ADVERTISED BAROCLINIC PATTERN FAVORS GOMEX SQLN FORMATION WITH
STRONG 120KT+ JET OVER NERN GOMEX AND DECENT AMPLITUDE TROUGH AT H50
LEADING TO STRONG MID/UPR FORCING. 50-60KT H85 JET ALSO CROSSES THE
NRN HALF OF FL WED MORNING/AFTN. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SVR STORMS OVER ECFL DURING THIS WINDOW
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