12/27/08 FCST: IL/IN

[Scott Weberpal]

Surprisingly, the gulf opens up wide next weekend yielding opportunity for a decent chase day in the southern Great Lakes next week.

Typical barn-burner type system with strong kinematics. Too soon to look at details, but it bears watching.

 

[Justin Bailey]

i too have been watching this for the past few model runs. i'll definately be keeping an eye on it to see how the models handle the system. as of right now its way to far away to be getting specific. I have a real hard time believing we'll see 60's Dp as far north as cental IN. hell we'd be doin good to see that here in nashville this time of year. if all holds true though it'll be a wild weekend for parts of the midwest and midsouth.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I noticed this setup just last night. My thinking at the time was that the Dixie Alley could be in for some action on the 26th. Just noticed this discussion has been started, so I looked at the latest GFS, and now I feel like a right merry old elf. Hard not to smile wishfully about the possibility of dewpoints getting tugged that far north. Slightly backed surface winds, deep-layer moisture, good shear...I'll be watching and hoping.

 

[rdale]

The cold front is already through all of IL and most of Indiana by 12Z that morning, so it'd seem pretty hard to get much severe weather with no moisture and no heat...

 

[Scott Weberpal]

The cold front is already through all of IL and most of Indiana by 12Z that morning, so it'd seem pretty hard to get much severe weather with no moisture and no heat...

Looks good on the GFS.

 

[rdale]

Sorry, I didn't realize you were using the GFS.

The GFS has been horrible for the last two events in the Great Lakes area, so I wouldn't put much faith in it until it starts doing better. Euro has been consistently faster with that storm.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'm still keeping an eye on this system. The GFS has sloshed the low all over the place with different runs, but a few things have stayed consistent. Notably, decent surface and 850 Tds get pulled far north, and the winds fields are insane, veering around 45 degrees from southerly surface to H7.

Rob, I note your comment on ECMWF. With COD down, I don't have a source for that to compare with, so all I've got is GFS. You're probably right, but I hope you're wrong. Even if the GFS pans out, still, with no CAPE to work with, I'm guessing that anything that develops would be a product of wide-scale forcing, and tornadoes, if they occur, would take the form of brief, unpredictable spinups in response to strong low-level helicities. My two cents as a developing forecaster.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Looks like the 27th is a wash at this point with the GFS now pushing the CF through faster. 26th may be the day now further south and west into OK/MO.

I should listen to Rob more often.

 

[Andrew Herron]

Not so hot but still works solution to getting your ECMWF fix: http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_4panel.html

You can also get it through MetWise if you have that.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Bob,

The NOAA site for numerical models still works just fine and includes the GFS...just not in quite as handy a manner:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

 

[rdale]

Jeff - he has the GFS, looking for the Euro. If CoD doesn't get back up soon I'll see about generating it from GEMPAK and uploading to my server.

In the meantim - Euro of new looks like the GFS of old with a big warmup and strong low much more NW. Think this will be a bouncer for a few more days...

 

[Scott Weberpal]

I'm beginning to again become interested in the I-55 corridor between St. Louis and Bloomington late morning/early afternoon. IF (and it's a big if) any low-level buoyancy can develop near the SW to NE oriented front, a few tornadoes would be expected. This yields eerie similarities to 1-7-08, with the exception being warmer temps aloft with this event.