11/29/06 - 12/1/06 NOW: Plains/Great Lakes snowstorm

[rdale]

Well -- it would have been... They have it in summer mode so it's all screwed up.

 

[Bill Schintler]

Eastern IA to dodge the bullet on this one...

Iowa City:
Light snow will start at 11PM tonight and continue through the mid-morning hours on Friday. Expect a total accumulation of 1 inch.

Cedar Rapids:
Light snow or flurries will start at 12AM Friday. Expect little more then a dusting of accumulation.

Discussion:
Shallow arctic air mass has moved over areas north of a Shreveport, LA to Evansville, IN line by 12Z. H925 front was analyzed roughly 70mi north of SFC front while H85 front was located 150 mi further N along a Wichita Falls, TX to Peoria, IL line. UA and WV loop analysis indicated numerous disturbances lifting NE along the east side of the upper trough and a developing closed circulation over the TX panhandle. First of two primary disturbances is lifting out of WI, while upstream system is strengthening over ERN OK. WRF takes H85 low along a path through Springfield, MO at 6Z Friday, through St. Louis at 12Z and Ft. Wayne, IN at 18Z. The GFS suggests a similar track but with a timing of 4 to 6 hrs slower during the overnight into early morning period Friday. Concerning the precipitation FCST in ERN IA, the GFS brings the NWRN edge of QPF between 30 and 50 miles further N and W then the WRF. Expect that a dry flow near the SFC will result in a sharp cutoff in precipitation totals from SE to NW, so that over a 50 mile distance snowfall totals go from nothing to 6 inches or more.

[FONT=&quot]- bill[/FONT]

 

[Max Slover]

Here in St. Louis at the moment the snow is falling pretty good but it's not more than a dusting in the downtown area. Scanner traffic indicates that western parts of St. Louis County, St. Charles County, and Franklin County are getting pretty slammed.

Max...

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Im in Augusta, Ks been at work all day the snow started falling around 10am this morning and has been non stop ever since. I look out my office window and I cant see 50 ft in front of me we've had of 6" of snow already and we still got stuff forming down in texas and oklahoma thats drifting Ne. I've never seen snow fall like this which is funny cause before yesterday i'd never experienced thunderstorms that form in 27 degree temperatures and cause the sky to rain liquid ice which i think charges the atmospher around the downdrafts which would explain why there was a lot of lightning yesterday. It was a rush listening to all the loud claps of thunders as the rain/sleet mix dumped as much as 1/2" in less than 30 min.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Snowing in Kansas City

Here in the southern suburbs of KC we are gettin hit pretty hard right know. Rapid snowfall accumulation is occuring and visibilties have dropped tremendously here in the last 30-40 minutes. I'm already noticing snowfall accumulation of about 1/4" to 3/4" and we aren't even an hour into this storm.Lots of blowing snow as well due to winds in the 25-30MPH range. IMO I think we are in for a long and cold night in KC and areas south and east of us.

For all you chasing this storm be careful!!!

 

[Chris Allington]

That band in the kc metro area is pretty impressive looking on radar...so i was wondering when a member would get back to us... never seen oklahoma counties under blizzard warnings...

 

[atlienzz]

In downtown KC and visibility is extremely low. Maybe 30-50 feet. Snow started about 30 minutes ago and we already have at least a half inch to an inch of snow. Drifts are already up to 2-3 inches. Argh..I have to drive 30 miles to the south to get home at 5:00PM....gonna take at least a couple of hours.

Think a NOWCast is in order?

 

[afischer]

11/30/06 NOW: Srn Plains/Upr Midwest Snow & Lwr MS Valley Severe

Was just attempting to de-ice my driveway about an hour ago when the snow began falling in Kansas City north. Review of radar shows a frontogenetic snow band really has begun to intensify along and north of the I-35 corridor. The band may also be supported by jet coupling and favorable upper divergence, between the departing jet over the western Great Lakes and the incoming jet over TX on the forward side of the intensifying mid-level low. Olathe and the downtown KC airport are reporting 1/4 and 1/2 mile visibilities in snow, respectively. I'm actually hoping for a good 4-6 inch snowfall, to give us some traction on top of the compacted sleet from yesterday. Would prefer if the 6-12+ stayed south of here.

Edit: I just noticed I had missed a NOW encompassing 11/29 thru 12/01... in case this needs to be moved or deleted. :-O

 

[Dick McGowan]

I just measured 2.5 inches here in Olathe KS. Deciding whether I should start heading for my night class which has yet to be cancelled. It is over 30 miles away!

 

[Joel Wright]

It's just been a quiet, overcast day here today so far. I'm sitting on the where the northwest edge of the heaviest snowband will set up the way it looks. Based on all the latest runs, I should be in line for a 6-9" event, as long as the dry air doesn't intrude too much. I am a little concerned that it's snowing so hard in KC right now. None of the models, including the very latest NAM show that at all. This would imply that maybe the north edge may end up a bit further northwest than the models are forecasting. Just a bit of food for thought.

Anyway, just quiet and cloudy here right now, 23°. Snow should begin here by midnight...

 

[Chris Allington]

I wonder what the snowfall rates in that band are... obs have been somewhat behind so they didnt even show snow until the latest one was taken... been trying to get ahold of relatives in the olathe area

 

[atlienzz]

I just measured 2.5 inches here in Olathe KS. Deciding whether I should start heading for my night class which has yet to be cancelled. It is over 30 miles away!

I would say that class will probably be cancelled. I know all longview college classes have been canceled.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

well I hope your ready to stay inside your house for like 3 days lol cause we are getting buried deep and its all headed in your direction. Im 23 miles east of my house right now and I drive a ford contour. We are in the middle of a blizzard, this one is going doiwn as the blizzard of 06'. im counting 8" in augusta,ks right now has fallen and its still coming.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Took this an hour ago, sure is pretty. Not snowing as hard now.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Speaking of riding on the 850mb 0C line..here in Lansing I noticed on the SPC Mesoanalysis page that the RUC shows the OC line about 100 miles further SE than the GFS/NAM forecast position. If it represents reality, perhaps a slightly cooler solution is going to verify.

Just checked the 21Z SPC Mesoanalysis and compared it with the 12Z and 18Z NAM. The NAM runs placed the 0C isotherm from KMBS to KMKG, while the 21Z analysis has it lined up from just north of KSBN to just northwest of KPTK. That's a solid 75 miles southeast of the forecast...