Brett Adair
EF5
Late in the weekend it seems the ECMWF/GFS are coming in line with a very strong upper level system ejecting out into the Lower MS Valley with strong surface cyclogenesis approaching the LA coastline by 12z Sunday. Surface pressure falls east and north of the system will allow a warm front to rocket towards the north well inland as the SFC cyclone moves NNE. Upper level divergence signals are very conducive of a major severe weather episode with an intensifying low level jet focusing over Eastern MS/AL by 06z MON.
SFC convergence will increase underneath the favorable lift across the region for convection. Also, surface instability has continued to climb on the model as higher dew points are being expected from MEI-TCL-BHM-ANB by 12z MON. GFS BUFKIT soundings indicate near 1500 J/kg SB-CAPE at MOB by 06z MON so the warm advection will make the environment south of the boundary very unstable.
500-700mb lapse rates of 6-6.5 along with SRH values of 400+ across Central AL will place the region in a potentially violent setup in the early morning hours to about mid morning. The models are not handling timing very well, but they have both been rather consistent on a SFC low track from west of New Orleans to Nashville by 00z TUES. This needs to be watched because it has all of the potential to become a significant Gulf Coastal cool season outbreak scenario if the models are to come to fruition.
SFC convergence will increase underneath the favorable lift across the region for convection. Also, surface instability has continued to climb on the model as higher dew points are being expected from MEI-TCL-BHM-ANB by 12z MON. GFS BUFKIT soundings indicate near 1500 J/kg SB-CAPE at MOB by 06z MON so the warm advection will make the environment south of the boundary very unstable.
500-700mb lapse rates of 6-6.5 along with SRH values of 400+ across Central AL will place the region in a potentially violent setup in the early morning hours to about mid morning. The models are not handling timing very well, but they have both been rather consistent on a SFC low track from west of New Orleans to Nashville by 00z TUES. This needs to be watched because it has all of the potential to become a significant Gulf Coastal cool season outbreak scenario if the models are to come to fruition.
