10L: Tropical Storm Josephine

[Ryan McGinnis]

NHC has this Cape Verde wave pegged as likely to develop, and from the visibile cloud pattern, I can see why:




This would be Josephine if it developed into a storm.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Tropical cyclone formation alert issued:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2008/al992008.08090118.gif

The models seem to take it out to sea if it forms:

Quickscat:

(DELETED, NO LONGER RELEVANT)

 

[Jeff Snyder]

10L: TD10

Well, the NHC is initiating advisories on TD10, located south of the Cape Verde islands in the far eastern Atlantic. The latest spaghetti model graphics seem to indicate models have a pretty good consensus that TD10 will move WNW over the next few days, eventually ending up near the present position of Ike. The GFDL and HWRF are on the northeastern / right edge of the model guidance suite, indicating a position near 24N/45W by Saturday night. Both of these models also bring TD10 up to tropical storm intensity (as Josephine) relatively quickly, and the GFDL strengthens it to hurricane intensity Tuesday night. Given the look of the forecast, it looks like a fish (i.e. a storm that'll recurve out to sea), but we're a long ways out.

When is the last time we had 4 active tropical systems in the Atlantic at one time? I remember having 3 concurrent storms a few years ago, but I'm not sure I've seen 4.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

1995 had several going at the same time (Humberto, Iris, Jerry, Karen, & Luis).

 

[Gregg Gallina]

The record is 4 systems. 1995 - Jerry was dead before Luis developed. But in 1998, Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl were all hurricanes at the same time (which is also the record for ATL).

 

[Jeff Richardson]

Poor Josephine never really had a chance. Sometimes I think the Cape Verde storms start a bit too early to get a decent shot at developing into a substantial tropical cyclone.

 

[Lou Ruh]

Josephine making a comeback?

I've been watching the remnants of Josephine most of the way across the Atlantic. For most of the trip, the circulation was still visible. When I looked this morning, some convection was firing up in the area of the remnants. Also, it was interesting that http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ showed some "centered on storm" Josephine plots for the GFDL and HWRF (the latter of which brought it to hurricane strength) for 00Z yesterday.

As of 2PM EDT, NHC has started mentioning the area in their Tropical Weather Outlook (albeit with a low probability). Something to watch.