10/8/05 FCST: Subtropical Depression 22

Jason Toft

Quite an active hurricane season we've got going one here. :shock:

S.T.D. 22 looks relatively circular in form on the north side and otherwise well organized on visible satellite. 10kts of shear are affecting this system, which should limit intensification beyond 50kts, according to the NHC.

Hi Vince! How ya doin'? :D

Jason
 
Hi Vince! How ya doin'? :D

Jason
Click to expand...

Or not....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/090303.shtml

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NO LONGER PRODUCING ANY DEEP CONVECTION... AND WHAT CONVECTION THERE HAD BEEN EARLIER THIS EVENING WAS NOT AT ALL ORGANIZED ABOUT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER... WHICH IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED. THEREFORE... THE SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EITHER A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE... AND SO THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.
Click to expand...

The depression was never organized enough to overcome the sheared environment that it was in. The Western Atlantic region just doesn't look to be a favorable area for tropical development over the next 7-10 days.
 
I wouldn't be surprised to see some redevelopment from the remnants of STD 22.

As of around 19z on sunday, the system has some deep convection located to the SW of an exposed LLC -- well south of Bermuda. I am impressed that the system has been able to maintain this level of organization with such strong NNWly shear over the area, but, even in this harsh upper-level environment, the UW-CIMMS satellite-based intensity estimates as of 1845z today are T2.1 or 31kt.

This system should continue to be steered generally to the NW over marginally sufficient SSTs of 27-28C and with already impressive organization at this point, I would imagine that with any relaxation of the upper-level winds (a lot to ask for at this point), a further increase in strength would be observed. Like I said above, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see advisories reinitiated on this system sometime later today or tonight. Will we see Wilma from this system?

1915z satellite image of the remnants of STD22:
 
It does appear as if some strengthning and an increase in convection has occured. Dvorak T Numbers have increased from a low of 1.6 to 2.1 just recently and it doesn't necessairly appear to have stopped for the time being.
Quickscat does show up to 30kts of wind. Intensity guidance still looks pretty promising with most still indicating some strengthning. Though it seems several dynamic models were a little slow to strengthen this system in the first place.
 
Hi Scott,

I'm not certain regarding this system, but I believe some of the dynamical models don't care to deal with systems less than 30 knots or so. This may be the reason they aren't handling it the best.

Just a guess that could be completely wrong!

Pat
 
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